中国农业气象 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (01): 14-22.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.01.003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

河南省参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其气候影响分析

姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙   

  1. 河南省气候中心,郑州450003
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-27 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-04-17
  • 作者简介:姬兴杰(1982-),河南商丘人,博士,工程师,主要从事气候变化与气象灾害研究。Email:jixingjie2004@yahoo.com.cn
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业(气象)科研专项“全球变化背景下中国气象灾害风险区划研究”(GYHY200906019);河南省重点科技攻关项目(092102310045)

Analysis on Trends in Annual Reference Crop Evapotranspiration and its Impact Climatic Factors in Henan Province During 1971 to 2010

JI Xing jie,ZHU Ye yu,GU Wan long   

  1. Henan Provincial Climate Centre, Zhengzhou450003, China
  • Received:2012-04-27 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-04-17

摘要: 基于河南省111个气象站1971-2010年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、风速和日照时数等气候要素资料,应用Penman-Monteith模型计算各站点逐日参考作物蒸散量(ET0),结合数理统计方法,分析近40a来河南省年ET0的时空变化特征,并对其主要影响因子进行探讨。结果表明,Penman-Monteith模型对河南省ET0的模拟能力较强,模拟值与同期小型蒸发皿蒸发量的相关系数r=0.84(P<0.01)。近40a,河南省年ET0平均值为796.1mm(±102.2mm,n=4169),在空间分布上,总体表现出北高南低的特征,并以24.7mm·10a-1(P<0.01)的线性倾向率减少,呈明显减少的站点主要分布在34°N以北地区。偏相关分析表明,全省各地(市)年ET0与各气象要素关系密切,除济源外,年ET0均表现出与风速呈负相关且相关系数最大。逐步回归分析显示,年ET0与平均气温、日照时数、风速和相对湿度的关系密切;风速、日照时数和平均气温对年ET0的贡献为正效应,而相对湿度为负效应。近40a,风速减小是导致河南省年ET0呈显著减小的主要原因;但从综合影响看,这是各气象因素综合作用的效果,且各因子的贡献存在区域差异。

关键词: 河南省, 年参考作物蒸散量, Penman-Monteith模型, 影响因素

Abstract: Based on the long-term climatic observational data including daily mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration from 111 meteorological stations in Henan province from 1971 to 2010, authors calculated the daily reference crop evapotranspirations (ET0) for each station with the aid of the revised Penman-Monteith model recommended by FAO. The temporal spatial distribution characteristics of annual ET0 and its major climatic impact factors were analyzed using the mathematical statistics. The results showed that, the Penman-Monteith model well simulated annual ET0 in Henan province during the past 40 years, with a correlation coefficient of 0.84 (P<0.01) between an annual ET0 and the annual 20cm pan evaporation during same period in same stations. The mean annual ET0 of the 40 years was 796.1mm (±102.2mm,n=4169), with higher values in northern regions than southern regions. Temporally, annual ET0 of Henan province declined significantly with the rate of 24.7mm·10y-1. Among the sites with significant decreasing annual ET0 during 1971 to 2010, most of them located at around 34°N northwards. Partial correlation analysis showed that, annual ET0 of either the whole Henan province or single city closely related to meteorological factors, and further analysis indicated the most significant negative correlation between ET0 and wind speed, with an exception of Jiyuan. Stepwise regression analysis suggested that the change of annual ET0 had close relationship with mean temperature, sunshine hour, wind speed and relative humidity.The effects of mean temperature, sunshine duration and wind speed on annual ET0 were positive, while that of relative humidity was negative. Wind speed reduction during the past 40 years was the main cause of decreased annual ET0; however, the overall change of annual ET0 was synthetically affected by mean temperature, sunshine hour, wind speed and relative humidity as a whole, and the contribution of each climate factor differed spatially.

Key words: Henan province, Annual reference crop evapotranspiration, Penman-Monteith model, Impact factors