中国农业气象 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (09): 761-774.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.09.004

• 农业气象灾害 栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于格点资料的1961−2018年中国霜冻灾害时空变化规律

白磊,张帆,文元桥,师春香,吴晶,尚明,朱智,孟俊耀   

  1. 1.武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,武汉 430070;2. 武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉 430070;3.国家气象信息中心,北京 100081;4.兰州中心气象台,兰州 730020;5. 河北工程大学地球科学与工程学院,邯郸 056038;6.北京驰远科技有限公司, 北京 101108
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-03 出版日期:2021-09-20 发布日期:2021-09-11
  • 通讯作者: 师春香,研究员,研究方向为多源数据融合和大气再分析研究,E-mail: shicx@cma.gov.cn E-mail:shicx@cma.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:白磊,E-mail: bailei09@mails.ucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506601;2018YFC1407405);国家自然科学基金青年项目(51709218)

Evolution of the Frost Hazards Based on Gridded Meteorological Data across China in 1961−2018

BAI Lei , ZHANG Fan, WEN Yuan-qiao , SHI Chun-xiang , WU Jing , SHANG Ming , ZHU Zhi , MENG Jun-yao   

  1. 1.Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China; 2.School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070; 3.National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 100081; 4.Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou 730020; 5.School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038; 6.Chiyuan Science Technology, Beijing 101108
  • Received:2020-09-03 Online:2021-09-20 Published:2021-09-11

摘要: 以1961−2018年长时间序列的格点化气象数据替代以往研究中站点数据,通过趋势分析和聚类分析等方法,研究中国区域内适合格点数据的霜冻辨识阈值、霜冻发生时间及霜冻强度的时空变化规律,以在气候变化背景下合理利用气候资源,降低霜冻灾害给农业生产造成的损失。结果表明:(1)日最低气温0℃相比日最低气温2℃作为阈值辨识初/终霜冻和无霜期的空间分布更加合理。(2)1961−2018年中国大部分地区初霜冻日期推后(1~3d·10a−1),终霜冻日期提前,无霜期增加(1~3d·10a−1)。(3)不同强度的霜冻年累计发生次数在中国北方有微弱增加态势,在南方呈现明显的减少趋势。其中,晚霜冻不同霜冻强度年发生频次高于早霜冻。(4)以霜冻日期和霜冻发生频数为标准进行中国霜冻灾害区划,全国可分为亚热带、暖温带、中温带、寒温带和青藏高原5个分区。其中,以青藏高原不同霜冻日期变化最为剧烈。整体上,中国区域的气候变暖对于霜冻灾害的发生在时间、空间和强度上有明显的减弱效果。

关键词: 初霜日, 终霜日, 无霜日, 霜冻强度, 霜冻区划, 青藏高原

Abstract: Long term gridded meteorological data in 1961-2018 was used in this study instead of in situ observation in previous studies. The spatial and temporal patterns of frost identification thresholds, frost occurrence frequency and frost intensity in the mainland China were investigated through trend analysis and cluster analysis, in order to use climate resources under climate change and reduce the losses caused by frost disasters to agricultural production. The main results were as follows, (1) for screen threshold for frost hazards, the frost date information including first frost date, last frost date and frost free days was detected with detailed geographically spatial pattern and reasonable spatial feature in the threshold of daily 2m minimum air temperature of 0℃ than the ones detected by the threshold of daily 2m minimum air temperature of 2℃.(2)In 1961−2018, first frost date in most China was generally delayed (1−3d·10y−1), and last frost date is advanced. Both of them induced the frost-free days’ increase (1−3d·10y−1). (3)The annual frequency of different frosts intensities had a weakly increased in northern China and obviously decreased in southern China. And the annual frequency of spring frost in different intensities was higher than that of autumn frost in different intensities. (4)The frost hazard’s regionalization clustered by frost date and frequency of frost intensity had five sub-regions, which were subtropical zone, warm tropical zone, middle temperate zone, cold temperate zone, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau zone. In these sub-regions, the Qinghai-Tibet plateau zone had the most dramatic variation in frost dates. Generally, the warming trend in China had a significant weakening effect on the occurrences of frost damage in time, space and intensity.

Key words: First frost date, Last frost date, Frost-free days, Frost intensity, Frost hazards regionalization, Qinghai-Tibet plateau