关键词: 气候变化, CMIP6, MaxEnt模型, 柑橘黄龙病, 物种分布

Abstract: Based on the climate data in 1970−2000 and the distribution data of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in China, the main climatic indices affecting the distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama were identfied by maximum entropy model (Maxent), including temperature seasonality standard deviation, precipitation of driest month(mm), precipitation of coldest quarter(mm), average maximum temperature in January(℃), average maximum temperature in September (℃), average maximum temperature in October(℃) and average minimum temperature in August (℃). The MaxEnt model was reconstructed by the 7 main climatic indices to estimate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in China. The results showed that climate prediction mode selection of CMIP6 had significant impacts on prediction of the distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. The overall prediction distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama was the highest in the CanESM5 mode, and the lowest in the BCC-CSM2-MR mode. It showed that the single mode had a greater uncertainty. Affected by climate change, multi-mode ensemble prediction showed that the potential suitable areas in the 2081−2100 for Diaphorina citri Kuwayama would increase significantly compared with in the 1970−2000, from 18.8% (SSP126 scenario) to 55.7% (SSP585 scenario). In the 2081−2100, the potential high suitable area would increase significantly from 78.3% (SSP126 scenario) to 177% (SSP585 scenario). The northern boundary of the suitable distribution shifted northward to about 32°N (SSP126 scenario) and 37°N (SSP585 scenario), while the actual northern boundary was at 30°N in the 1970−2000.This study indicated that climate change would be very beneficial to the spread of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama and threaten the ecological security of citrus-producing in China. The main citrus producing provinces, especially the areas where Diaphorina citri Kuwayama had not been found, need to be vigilant and strengthen the prevention of Citrus Huanglongbing.

Key words: Climate change, CMIP6, MaxEnt, Citrus Huanglongbing , Species distribution