关键词: ALMANAC模型, 敏感性分析, 参数率定

Abstract: The data of field experiments for winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.)and summer maize(Zea mays L.) from 2000 to 2003 in Yucheng County of Shandong Province were used to validate the simulation of the model ALMANAC and calibrate the crop parameters,in order to build model database conveniently and reduce the uncertainty of the model simulation.The One-at-a Time method(OTA) was adopted to analyze sensitivities of the soil and crop parameters.The validation results showed that the model ALMANAC could preferably simulate the dynamic changes of the yields and leaf area indexes of wheat and maize.The relative error of simulated yields for wheat and maize was-8.6%~6.0% and-3.5%~7.2% respectively,while the relative error of simulated leaf area indexes for wheat and maize was-13.1%~14.8% and-13.0%~12.2% respectively.The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the runoff curve number,bulk density,field capacity and soil thickness among all of soil parameters had the most significant influence on the simulation results,while the initial soil water content and wilting point were in the next place,and the silt content,sand content and soil albedo were in the third place.The harvest index,biomass-energy ratio,potential heat unit,fraction of leaf area increment season to growing season among crop parameters had the most significant influence on the simulation results,while the optimal temperature,extinction coefficient,ambient temperature,maximum root depth,maximum LAI,plant population parameter were in the next place,and the decline rate of the biomass-energy ratio,leaf area development curve,decline rate of the leaf area index were in the third place.

Key words: ALMANAC model, ALMANAC model, Sensitivity analysis, Parameter calibration