中国农业气象 ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (05): 567-574.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.05.014

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于相对湿润度指数的云南干旱气候变化特征

任菊章,黄中艳,郑建萌   

  1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072,云南省气象科学研究所,昆明650034;云南省气象学会,昆明650034;云南气候中心,昆明650034
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-06 出版日期:2014-10-20 发布日期:2015-02-11
  • 作者简介:任菊章(1977-),女,青海人,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为季风与短期气候变化。Email:renjzhyn@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然基金联合重点项目(U1133603);行业(气象)专项(GYHY201006023);中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放基金(LPM2012012);云南省基金(2012FB196);云南省气象局气候变化专项(QH201402)

Analysis on Drought Climate Change in Yunnan Based on Relative Moisture Index

REN Ju zhang, HUANG Zhong yan, ZHENG Jian meng   

  1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu610072, China; Yunnan Research Institute of Meteorology, Kunming650034;Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Society, Kunming650034; Yunnan Climate Centre, Kunming650034
  • Received:2014-01-06 Online:2014-10-20 Published:2015-02-11

摘要: 基于云南15个代表站1961-2010年气候资料,使用相对湿润度(M)指数和Morlet小波变换方法分析云南干旱气候的时空变化规律和特征。结果表明:雨季M指数主要反映降水对干旱的影响,干季M指数对气温、日照等共同引发的蒸散量变化有相应的响应。云南气候干湿年际波动大、年代际变化明显;雨季M指数主要表现为10~16a、6~8a和2~4a的周期性变化,干季M指数的变化周期以8a和4~6a为主;雨季M指数的地区性差别比干季大。云南的严重干旱均为上年雨季(或其末期) M指数偏小、随后的干季M指数典型偏低和当年雨季开始偏晚相叠加的结果。在全球变暖背景下,云南雨季有气候变干的趋势,干季大多区域呈干旱略加强趋势。近年云南多数区域M指数的主要变化周期相继进入谷值期,并与降水偏少同步出现,导致严重干旱发生频率加大。研究结果对云南干旱预测、评估及其风险管理和应用决策具有指导性和实用性。

关键词: 相对湿润度, 干旱, Morlet小波分析, 干季, 雨季, 气候变化

Abstract: Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 15 meteorological stations in Yunnan during 1961-2010, the temporal and spatial variation of drought climate in Yunnan was analyzed by using relative moisture index (M index) and Morlet wavelet method. The results showed that the M index mainly reflected the effect of precipitation on drought during rainy season in Yunnan while the M index was responded to evapotranspiration which resulted from temperature and sunshine during dry season. There was big fluctuation on dry wet climate in Yunnan both from interannual and interdecadal change. M index mainly showed periodical changes with 10-16 years, 6-8 years and 2-4 years in rainy season while with 8 years and 4-6 years mostly appeared in dry season, and its regional change in rainy season was bigger than that in dry season. Most of the severe droughts in Yunnan showed similar trend, which was smaller M index value in last rainy season, lower index value in following dry season, and delaying rainy season in this year. The climate in rainy season was tending to dry, and climate in dry season tend to more dry under global warming. The main period of M index change in most region of Yunnan entered into low value stages, accompanying precipitation decline, which resulted in frequent severe droughts. The results could provide references for drought prediction and evaluation, and risk management in Yunnan

Key words: Relative moisture, Drought, Morlet wavelet analysis, Dry season, Rainy season, Climate Change