中国农业气象 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (02): 119-128.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.001

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

PRECIS对未来广西冬季农业气候资源变化的模拟分析

梁骏 ,刘一江 ,梁驹 ,许吟隆   

  1. 1广西大学农学院,南宁530004;2雷丁大学气象系,英国雷丁RG6 7BE;3中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2014-08-25 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-06-25
  • 作者简介:梁骏(1957-),广西北海人,博士,教授,主要从事农业气象学与环境生态学研究。Email:LJ@gxu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    广西自然科学基金(2013GXNSFAA019087)

Simulation Analysis of Winter Agricultural Climatic Resources Over Guangxi Based on PRECIS

LIANG Jun,LIU Yi jiang,LIANG Ju,XU Yinlong   

  1. 1Agricultural College of Guangxi University, Nanning530004,China; 2 Department of Meteorology University of Reading,Reading RG6 7BE,UK;3Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, beijing100081,China
  • Received:2014-08-25 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-06-25

摘要: 利用英国气象局Hadley中心区域气候模拟系统PRECIS模拟产生的广西区域冬季气候情景数据,以广西区域内92个气象站实际观测资料为标准,以1961-2010年作为订正基准时段,按不同方法对模拟的气温、降水量、辐射数据进行修订。利用修订后的冬季气候情景模拟数据,分析广西冬季气候资源分布随时间的变化,评估和预估过去、当前和未来广西冬季气候资源状况。结果表明:未来广西区内光热资源均呈由南向北减少的纬向分布特征,水分资源均呈由西向东增加的经向分布特征。在IPCC SRES A2与B2情景下,1961-2100年广西区域冬季日平均气温升高趋势分别为0.33℃10a-1和0.29℃10a-1;降水量在A2情景下变化不大,变化趋势为-0.2mm10a-1,但在B2情景下呈现减少趋势,变化趋势为-4.1mm10a-1;日辐射强度在A2与B2情景下均呈增加趋势。预估未来光照和气温条件将给广西冬种开发带来更好的光热条件,而水分条件则将呈不利趋势。

关键词: PRECIS, 情景预估, 农业气候资源

Abstract: In this study, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Study) regional climate modeling system from Hadley Center/UK Met Office was used to generate the winter climate scenario dataset over Guangxi. The simulated temperature, precipitation and radiative flux were corrected with different methods based on the observed data from 92 observatories neighbor with model wind grids over Guangxi. Then the corrected data were used to assess/project the past, present and future status of winter climatic resources over Guangxi. The results showed positive zonal gradient features in the distributions of thermal and radiative resources, and positive meridional gradient features in the precipitation distribution. Under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, the projection showed increase trends of 0.33℃10y-1and 0.29℃10y-1 respectively in the surface air temperature during 1961-2100. The simulation showed slight changes in precipitation with trends of-0.2mm10y-1 under A2 scenario, while the significant decrease trend of-4.1mm10y-1 was showed under B2 scenario. The simulated radiative flux showed general increases under both scenarios. In general, the projection of future surface air temperature and radiative flux would provide better thermal/radiative conditions for developing winter crop planting in Guangxi, while the projected water conditions would bring increased disadvantages.

Key words: PRECIS, Scenario projection, Agricultural climatic resources