中国农业气象 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (02): 203-211.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

辽西北地区气温和降水变化对气候生产潜力的影响

张艺萌,张雪松,郭婷婷,罗新兰   

  1. 1沈阳农业大学,沈阳110866;2南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044;3辽宁省气象局,沈阳110001
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-27 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-06-25
  • 作者简介:张艺萌(1989-),女,辽宁铁岭人,硕士生,研究方向为应用气象。Email:zhangym_1008@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306046);气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)开放课题(KLME1415);江苏省农业气象重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)开放课题(KYQ1404)

Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Change and the Influence on Climate Productive Potential in the Northwestern Liaoning

ZHANG Yimeng, ZHANG Xuesong, GUO Tingting, LUO Xinlan   

  1. 1Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang110866,China; 2Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing210044;3Liaoning Meteorological Service, Shenyang110001
  • Received:2014-11-27 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-06-25

摘要: 利用辽西北地区23个气象站1961-2010年逐日平均气温和降水量数据,基于Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算其农业气候生产潜力,通过线性趋势分析、MannKendall突变检验等方法对该区域多年平均气温、降水量和气候生产潜力的时间变化趋势及空间分布特征进行分析,研究农业气候生产潜力对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)50a来辽西北地区年平均气温气候倾向率为0.28℃·10a-1(P<0.01),增温极显著,1987年气温发生突变;(2)50a来辽西北地区年降水量呈波动变化,线性变化趋势不显著,空间分布差异大,降水量呈减少趋势的地区占82.6%;(3)辽西北地区气候生产潜力的时空变化特征与降水量变化相似,其时间变化趋势不显著,气候生产潜力下降的区域占全区的43.5%;(4)气温和降水对农业气候生产潜力的影响作用明显,并以降水的影响为主。气温和降水的组合变化,可以解释气候生产潜力变化的95%以上,暖湿型气候对作物生长最有利,冷干型气候对作物生长最不利;(5)50a来,粮食产量与气候生产潜力的相关性不明显,但两者的波动特点相似,其气候利用率逐年代增加,研究区未来仍存在作物可能增产空间。

关键词: 气候变化, 气候生产潜力, Thornthwaite Memorial 模型, 时空变化

Abstract: The crop climatic productive potential in the Northwestern Liaoning was assessed based on daily mean Temperature and precipitation data from 23 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and Thornthwaite Memorial Model, linearity analysis, and MannKendall test were used for the calculation. The spatiotemporal variations of the temperature, precipitation and climate productive potential were analyzed, while the impact of climate change on agricultural climate productive potential was studied. The results showed that the annual mean temperature increased at a rate of about 0.28℃·10y-1(P<0.01)with the annual mean temperature series altered significantly in 1987. In the nearest 50 years, the annual precipitation fluctuated with both time and spatial distribution. 82.6% of the region had a decreasing precipitation. The spatial and temporal distribution of climatic productive potential followed the same trend as precipitation. However, it was not varied dramatically on time scale. The region which climatic productive potential declined accounted for about 43.5%. Temperature and precipitation were two major influence factors for climatic productive potential, where linearity formed as precipitation performed as predominant aspect. The climate productive potential boosted at warm and wet condition while diminished under cold and dry situation. In 50 years, the grain output and climatic productive potential did not form a consistent pattern. However, they both fluctuated similarly in a large extent. Also, climatic efficiency increased every ten years. The area of interest still has room for growth at optimal weather condition.

Key words: Climatic change, Climatic productive potential, Thornthwaite Memorial model, Spatiotemporal change