中国农业气象 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (06): 398-410.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.06.005

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

近30年中美玉米带生长季干旱特征的差异及成因分析

王芳,王春乙,邬定荣,姚树然,白月明,张继权   

  1. 1.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;2.河北省气象科学研究所,石家庄 050021;3.东北师范大学环境学院/自然灾害研究所,长春 130117
  • 出版日期:2018-06-20 发布日期:2018-06-14
  • 作者简介:王芳(1993?),女,硕士生,研究方向为农业气象灾害风险评估。E-mail: wolf0301@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金;河北省科技计划项目(15227609D)

Difference and Cause Analysis of Drought Characteristics during Growth Period between the Corn Belts of China and the United States in Past 30 Years

WANG Fang, WANG Chun-yi, WU Ding-rong, YAO Shu-ran, BAI Yue-ming, ZHANG Ji-quan   

  1. 1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Hebei Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021; 3. School of Environment/Natural Disaster Research Institute, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117
  • Online:2018-06-20 Published:2018-06-14

摘要: 气候变化背景下,中美两国玉米的种植均受到了干旱灾害的严重影响。为有效借鉴美国抗旱减灾措施与经验,利用1986?2015年位于中国东北和美国大平原的世界两大黄金玉米带的气象资料,计算其标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),通过线性倾向估计、相关性检验等统计方法,比较两地干旱特征的差异并分析其成因。结果表明:与美国相比,中国东北玉米带生长季的太阳辐射较高、平均气温较低、降水更为稀少且集中在玉米生长后期,美国玉米带生长前、后期的降水较均衡;两地不同生育阶段的SPEI年际波动及干旱频率、强度和干旱范围的时间变化均有明显不同,且在空间分布上具有各自的特征;由于中国东北玉米带生长季出现异常高温少雨高辐射天气的频次高于美国玉米带,故其在玉米生长前、后期的干旱频率及强度均高于美国,尤其生长后期因美国异常天气出现频次较低,两地差异更为显著。两地具有较为一致的光温水演变特征,导致其干湿变化趋势较为一致,即玉米生长前期均趋于湿润而后期趋于干旱,但仅美国玉米带生长前期湿润化趋势明显,其原因主要是该生长期降水明显增加及辐射显著降低。在应对干旱威胁时,美国可能会较注重对玉米带前期干旱的管理,而中国东北除关注前期干旱管理外,还需特别重视玉米生长后期的抗旱措施保障。因此,在借鉴国外抗旱减灾经验时,需充分考虑国内外干旱灾害发生规律及灾害主导因子的不同,从而对抗灾措施进行相应调整。

关键词: 中美玉米带, 气候背景, SPEI, 时空分布, 成因分析

Abstract: Corn growth in China and the United States(US) has been seriously affected by the drought disaster under climate change. In order to effectively reference the advanced experiences on drought mitigation of the US, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) was calculated for two corn belts located in Northeast of China(NEC) and the US based on the observed meteorological data during 1986-2015. The observed differences in drought characteristics were compared and their causes were further analyzed by conducting the linear fitting analysis, correlation test and other statistical methods. The results showed that, compared with the US, corn growth period in the corn belt of NEC has higher solar radiation, lower average air temperature, and less but concentrated precipitation during late growth stage, and precipitation in the corn belt of the US was relatively evenly distributed during the whole growth period. Time variation of annual SPEI, drought frequency, drought severity and drought extent during different growth stages were significant different in two areas, with respective characteristics in the spatial distribution. Drought frequency and severity in the corn belt of NEC was higher than that of the US during the whole growth period because of the higher frequency of high air temperature, rainless and high radiation weather, especially the differences of drought characteristics between two areas became more significant during late growth stage due to the lower frequency of abnormal weather happened in the corn belt of the US. Consistency of temporal changes of radiation, air temperature and precipitation in two areas led to the similar trends of dry-wet variations, i.e., wetter during early and drier during late growth stage. However, significant wetter trend was only happened in the corn belt of the US during early growth stage due to its significant increase in precipitation and decrease in radiation. The US may pay more attention to the drought management during early growth stage of the corn belt in respond to drought threats, but for NEC, in addition to the drought management during early growth stage, additional attention should be paid to the late growth stage. Therefore, in referencing the experience of drought mitigation from foreign countries, enough attention should be paid to the differences of drought-resistant measures resulted from the differences in the characteristics and disaster-leading factors of drought disaster in the different regions.

Key words: Corn belts of NEC and the US, Climate background, SPEI, Spatiotemporal distribution, Cause analysis