阿勒泰地区不同时间尺度参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000?6362.2018.08.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961?2016年逐日气象数据和联合国粮农组织推荐的Penman-Monteith公式，估算该区域近56a参考作物蒸散量（ET0），利用气候倾向率和反距离加权插值法分析ET0及主要气象因子的时空变化特征，并采用相关系数和多元回归分析相结合的方法对不同尺度ET0变化成因进行分析。结果表明：阿勒泰地区年平均ET0为928.46mm，其气候倾向率为-10.90mm·10a-1（P＜0.01）。季节ET0平均值由大到小依次为夏季、春季、秋季和冬季，夏季、秋季ET0呈极显著降低趋势（P＜0.01），冬季ET0呈显著增加趋势（P＜0.05）。6-7月ET0最大，1月和12月ET0最小，年内变化呈抛物线形。总体来看，各时间尺度ET0空间分布特征基本一致，且呈现中西部地区ET0显著减少趋势，年ET0减少是夏季ET0减少所致。各尺度ET0变化主要贡献因子不一，但平均风速的极显著降低对ET0减少的影响最大。

关键词: 参考作物蒸散量, 时空变化, 贡献率, 气候变化, 阿勒泰地区

Abstract: Based on the daily data of 7 meteorological stations in Altay region from 1961 to 2016， spatio-temporal change characteristics of ET0 and meteorological factors were analyzed with climate change rate and inverse distance weighted interpolation method after calculation with the Penman-Monteith model. Then the multiple regression analysis method were combined with the correlation coefficient to study the causes of change of different time scales of ET0. The results showed that the average annual ET0 of Altay Region was 928.46mm, the climate change rate of annual ET0 was -10.90mm·10y-1(P＜0.01). The seasonal average ET0 from high to low was summer, spring, autumn and winter, summer ET0 and autumn ET0 showed a significant decrease trend(P＜0.01), and winter ET0 showed a significant increase(P＜0.05). The maximum monthly average ET0 appeared at June and July, the minimum value appeared at January and December, and annual distribution presented parabolic shape. Overall, the spatial distribution characteristics of ET0 in difference time scales were basically consistent, and showed a significant decrease in ET0 in the middle and west region, and the decrease in annual ET0 was caused by the decrease of ET0 in summer. The main contribution factor of different time scales of ET0 change was different, but the significant decrease of average wind speed had the greatest effect on ET0 reduction.

Key words: Reference crop evapotranspiration, Spatio-temporal variation, Contribution rate, Climate change, Altay region

康丽娟，巴特尔·巴克，罗那那，薛亚荣，王孟辉. 阿勒泰地区不同时间尺度参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(08): 502-511.

KANG Li-juan, Batur Bake, LUO Na-na, XUE Ya-rong, WANG Meng-hui. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Reference Crop Evapotrans- piration at Different Time Scales in Altay Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(08): 502-511.

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