基于寒害过程的福建芒果种植气候风险区划

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.11.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过冬季寒害灾情调查、果园定位观测、地理移置和人工气候箱低温致灾试验4种渠道，收集芒果寒害的灾情样本39例，从而确定芒果寒害临界温度为2.0℃。在此基础上，筛选出福建芒果主产县市2001-2014年冬季28个寒害过程，通过将寒害过程温度、降水等气象因子与相对气象产量进行相关分析，确定芒果寒害致灾因子为过程极端最低气温、日最低气温≤2.0℃有害积寒、≤2.0℃寒害过程持续日数、≤2.0℃寒害过程降温幅度。利用主成分分析对4个致灾因子进行综合简化，得到芒果寒害评价的综合气候指标，结合相对气象产量确定了指标分级。根据寒害综合气候指标等级，应用GIS方法完成福建省芒果寒害种植气候风险区划，无寒害-轻度寒害的区域主要分布在沿海地区，是引种芒果优质品种寒害风险最低的区域。

关键词: 芒果, 寒害, 临界温度, 综合气候指标, 风险区划

Abstract: Based on the 39 mango cold disaster samples collected through four channels which were disaster investigation of cold injury in winter, orchard positioning observation, geographic displacement experiment and low temperature disaster experiment of artificial climate chamber, the critical temperature of cold injury for mango was determined to be 2.0℃. On this basis, 28 cold injury processes were screened out in winter from 2001 to 2014 in Fujian major mango producing counties and cities. By correlating the meteorological factors such as temperature and precipitation in the process of cold injury with the relative meteorological yield, the disaster-inducing factors for cold injury of mango was determined as extreme minimum temperature of cold injury process, accumulated value of cold injury process for the extreme minimum daily temperature ≤2.0℃, sustained days of cold injury process for the temperature ≤2.0℃, and cooling range of cold injury process for the temperature ≤2.0℃. By using the method of principal component analysis to simplify comprehensively four disaster-inducing factors, the integrated climatic index of cold injury evaluation of mango was obtained, and the index classification was determined by combining the relative meteorological yield. According to the grade of comprehensive climatic index of cold injury, the climatic risk regionalization of mango planting for cold injury was completed by using GIS method in Fujian Province. The region with no or mild cold injury mainly distributes in the coastal areas, which is the region with the lowest risk of cold injury for introducing high-quality mango varieties.

Key words: Mango, Cold injury, Critical temperature, Comprehensive climatic index, Risk regionalization

杨凯，陈彬彬，陈惠，李丽纯，陈斌源，李政. 基于寒害过程的福建芒果种植气候风险区划[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(11): 723-732.

YANG Kai，CHEN Bin-bin，CHEN Hui，LI Li-chun，CHEN Bin-yuan，LI Zheng. Climatic Risk Regionalization of Mango Planting in Fujian Province Based on Cold Injury Process[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(11): 723-732.

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