Changes of High Temperature Events During Rice Growth Period in MLRYR Under RCP Scenarios

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.002

Abstract

Abstract: Based on historical weather data from 1981 to 2009 and future climate data generated by HadGEM2-ES simulation with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios from 2021 to 2050, frequency, duration and intensity of high temperature events during rice growth period in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) were analyzed by heat stress days (HSD), maximum continuous heat stress days (MCD) and heat degree days (HDD). The results indicated that high temperature events increased significantly in MLRYR in 1981-2009. Tmax（average of the maximum daily temperature）, HSD, MCD, HDD increased by 0.51℃·10y-1, 3.9d·10y-1, 0.6d·10y-1 and 8.2℃·d·10y-1, respectively. Except for MCD, detectable increases of Tmax, HSD and HDD were at the year around 2001-2002, indicating frequency and intensity of high temperature rise sharply since 2002. The largest increase of high temperature events mainly located in the south of the region. Relative to the reference period of 1981-2009, high temperature events increased substantially in 2021-2050. Tmax, HSD, MCD and HDD increased by 1.5℃, 11.3d, 5.6d and 45.3℃·d, respectively, under RCP2.6 scenario, and increased by 1.7℃, 15.4d, 6.2d, 61.1℃·d, respectively, under RCP8.5 scenario. The risk of extreme high temperature events increased more under RCP8.5 scenario than RCP2.6 scenario relative to baseline condition. Changes of Tmax, HSD and MCD showed similar spatial pattern, all increased from southeast to northwest. But for HDD, the largest increase mainly located in the middle of the region. Frequency, duration and intensity of high temperature events all largely increased in the regions of the middle and north part of Hubei, Anhui, Hunan and Jiangxi Province under future RCP scenarios. Adjusting the planting day and replacing high temperature tolerated varieties are the effective measures to reducing high temperature stress to rice in these regions.

Key words: Rice, RCPs scenario, High temperature days, Maximum continuous high temperature days, High temperature degree days

FENG Ling-zhi, XIONG Wei, JU Hui, CAO Yang, YANG Di. Changes of High Temperature Events During Rice Growth Period in MLRYR Under RCP Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 383-392.

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