Comprehensive Risk Regionalization of Meteorological Index Insurance for High Temperature Heat Damage of Rice in Jiangsu Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.06.006

Abstract

Abstract: Taking Jiangsu as an example, based on logistic curve equation, historical meteorological data and rice yield observations from 1980 to 2015 was used to construct the meteorological index of high temperature heat hazard insurance. After that, three parametric models included normal distribution, normal logarithmic distribution and Weibull distribution and non-parametric model based on information diffusion method were used to fit the occurrence probability of high temperature heat damage in rice. Through goodness-of-fit test, it was found that the non-parametric model could better estimate the probability of high temperature heat damage occurred during booting to heading and flowering stages of rice in each county of Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, combined with the optimal fitting model, considering the operational needs of agricultural insurance, the corresponding evaluation index was determined, while the comprehensive index was constructed from four aspects: the risk of disaster-causing factors, the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on that, cluster analysis was used to carry out the comprehensive risk zoning of high temperature heat injury insurance for rice at county level. Through evaluation and analysis of the zoning result, it was found that the risk of high temperature heat injury insurance of rice in Jiangsu presented the characteristics of ＂high in the southwest and low in the northeast＂. At the same time, it also pointed out that the moderate and high risk areas were the key regions which need to rely on agricultural insurance to transfer the risk.

Key words: Rice, High temperature disaster, Index insurance, Model, Risk division and assessment

REN Yi-fang, ZHAO Yan-xia, ZHANG Xu-hui, WANG Ping, HE Lang. Comprehensive Risk Regionalization of Meteorological Index Insurance for High Temperature Heat Damage of Rice in Jiangsu Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(06): 391-401.

References

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