Table of Content

10 August 2008, Volume 29 Issue 04

Previous Issue    Next Issue

Cover Download

Article Download

论文

Validation of CERES-Maize Model in Main Maize Planting Regions in China

HU Ya-nan1,CHAI Shao-zhong2,XU Yin-long1,XIONG Wei1(1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment & Climate Change,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081,China;2.Agricultural Technology Promotion Center of Alxa league in Inner Mongolia,Bayan Hot,750306,China)

2008, 29(04):  383-386. 

Asbtract ( 8336 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The historic maize planting dataset in 70 stations was collected to analyze and validate the availability of CERES-Maize crop growth model together with the historic weather data in China from 1998 to 2000.These stations are located at North China spring maize area,Huanghuaihai plain summer maize area,South China mountain maize area,Southwest China maize area and Northwest China maize area.The data of growing period and yield were taken into account.Several statistic indexes,such as index of agreement(D) and root mean square error(RMSE),were applied to analyze and assess the model performance.The value of D is from 0.58 to 0.95 between the simulation and observation about growing period and the D of yield is from 0.66 to 0.88.These indicated that the simulations by CERES-Maize had an adequately agreement with observations.The errors between simulation and observation of growing period were lower than that of yield.The results also showed that statistic analysis at regional scale could be better to express the simulation results and assessments.

Climate Characteristic and Formation Mechanism of Continuing High Temperature of Summer in Shijiazhuang

LIAN Zhi-luan,GAO Lian-shan,ZHAO Yan-chang,KUANG Shun-si(Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau,Shijiazhuang 050081,China)

2008, 29(04):  387-391. 

Asbtract ( 7865 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the daily surface air temperature data of 17 stations in Shijiazhuang during 1955 and 2007,the climate and synoptic characteristics of persistent high temperature was analyzed.Circulation features and formation mechanism of three persistently strong high temperature cases were analyzed in detail.The results showed that persistent high temperature continuity and strong high temperature events increased from 1990's,while the persistent strong high temperature mostly occurred from second ten days of June to first ten days of July.The Continental warm high pressure and meso-scale high pressure system in Hetao with downdrafts brought about strong warm air masses developed and maintained,and lead to persistent high temperature in Shijiazhuang.The foehn effect in the east foot of the Taihang Moutain strengthened the high temperature as well.

Effects of Free-air CO_2 Enrichment(FACE) on Wheat Canopy Microclimate

WANG Ming-na1,2,LUO Wei-hong3,SUN Yan-kun2,ZHU Jian-guo1(1.Nanjing Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;2.College of Resources and Environment,Northeast Agricultural University,Haerbin 150030,China;3.Key Laboraroy of Crop Growth Regulation of the Ministry of Agriculture,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

2008, 29(04):  392-396. 

Asbtract ( 8553 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The Free-air CO2 Enrichment(FACE) system was used to investigate the effect of FACE on wheat canopy microclimate.The wheat canopy microclimate observations were carried out during elongation and mature stages.The results showed that the FACE extreme significantly reduced the wheat leaf stomatal conductance in upper,middle and lower leaves compared with the check by 28%,32%,and 26%(p<0.01)respectively.The maximum daytime mean temperature difference of the vegetation canopy between FACE and ambient reached at 1.58℃ in response to stomatal closure under E-CO2 at the flowering stage.The maximum daytime air temperature difference varied between 0.12 and 0.98℃ inside the canopy,and 0.03~0.7℃ at the canopy top.Whereas daytime air humidity inside the canopy was lower in FACE plot than in ambient plot.The maximum daytime air humidity difference between FACE and ambient varied between-0.3%～-7% at about 14:00.The net radiation above wheat canopy was not significantly affected by FACE.

Analysis of Characteristics of Precipitation Changes in Liu'an of Anhui Province Over Last 50 Years

ZHAO Ming-song,CHENG Xian-fu,ZHANG Jian-chun(College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241003,China)

2008, 29(04):  397-401. 

Asbtract ( 7486 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on precipitation data from 1956 to 2005 in Shouxian,Liu'an and Huoshan County of Liu'an region in Anhui Province,the characteristics of precipitation change was analyzed by using coefficient of variation(Cv),changing trend,mutation analysis and power spectral analysis.The influence of precipitation changes upon agricultural production was analyzed.The results showed that the precipitation decreased in Shouxian,Liu'an and Huoshan over last 50 years with an intermediate variation.The process of precipitation changes experienced three phases,namely partial dry,partial wet and dry and wet alternation.The Abrupt precipitation change in Shouxian and Liu'an County appeared in 1992,while it was in Huoshan County in 1965.The spectral analysis showed that the periodicities of precipitation were seven to eight years,two to three years and two years in Shouxian,Liu'an and Huoshan respectively.

Climate Change and its Impacts on Agricultural Production in Ningxia

ZHANG Zhi1,2,LIN Li1,LIANG Pei1(1.Ningxia Meteorological Information Center,Ningxia Meteorological Bureau,Yinchuan 750002,China;2.Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Preventing and Reduction,Yinchuan 750002,China)

2008, 29(04):  402-405. 

Asbtract ( 7171 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The data of the daily temperature,daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation of 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia between 1961 and 2005 was used to analyze the changes of the average annual temperature,the accumulative temperature above 0℃,the frost-free period and the precipitation during growing periods of crops.The results showed that the average annual temperature had remarkably increased since 1990's.It increased by 0.5℃ and 0.9℃ in 1990's and in 2001-2005 respectively.The accumulative temperature above 0℃ increased by 94.9℃ and 225.2℃ in 1990's and in 2001-2005 respectively.The frost-free period extended 6.8 days,while the precipitation during growing periods of crops decreased 12.5mm.The increased temperature was beneficial to winter wheat northward and upward higher altitude region beyond their original planting boundary.

Multiple Time Scale Analysis of Precipitation in Xi'an City Over Last 55 Years

ZHANG Yun1,ZHAO Jing-bo1,2(1.College of Tourism and Environment Science,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710062,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi'an 710075,China)

2008, 29(04):  406-410. 

Asbtract ( 7044 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on precipitation data of Xi'an from 1951 to 1995,changes of the precipitation over last 55 years in Xi'an City were analyzed,by using methods of linear regression,moving average,wavelet analysis and M-K mutation analysis.The results showed that the precipitation generally experienced fluctuation process in Xi'an over last 55 years.The precipitation changes in Xi'an were accorded with the precipitation changes in the eastern parts of the Northwest China under the impacts of the atmospheric circulation.The precipitation decreased in spring,summer and autumn,while it had an increasing trend with the fluctuations in winter.The precipitation in autumn had a certain relationship with the El Nino and the La Nina.A significant increasing trend of the precipitation in winter was greatly related to the enhanced west force and increased water vapor from south.The period of the precipitation change with steady periodic surge was three years and six years over last 55 years.The mutation analysis showed that the precipitation in Xi'an both in 1960's and 1990's had a significant mutation point,where it was into less rain period from more rain period.

Effects of Cerium(Ⅲ) on Nitrogen and Phosphor Absorption in Soybean Seedling under Supplemental UV-B Radiation Stress

REN Xiao-xiao,ZHOU Qing(Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology,Ministry of Education,Jiangnan University/Environment and Civil Engineering,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China)

2008, 29(04):  411-413. 

Asbtract ( 8909 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The effect of Cerium(Ⅲ) on metabolism enzyme activity of nitrogen and absorption of nitrogen and phosphor in soybean seedlings exposed to two levels of simulated ultraviolet-B radiation stress(UV-B,280-320 nm) was studied in hydroponics under greenhouse conditions.The results showed that the nitrate reductase activity,nitrate nitrogen and phosphor content in soybean seedlings' leaves in UV-B treatment significantly decreased compared to the check.Therefore,it was indicated that nitrate reductase activity was seriously inhibited by UV-B stress which led to a decrease of the nitrate nitrogen and phosphor content.The inhibitory action was stronger,as the UV-B stress was with high intensity and lasted longer time.The suitable concentration by 20mg·L-1 of CeCl3 could promote absorption nitrate nitrogen and phosphor content in soybean seedlings to alleviate the decrease of nitrate nitrogen and phosphor content.

Analysis of Temporal-spatial Variations of Reference Evapotranspiration During 1965 and 1999 in Hebei Province

LI Chun-qiang1,HONG Ke-qin1,2,LI Bao-guo2(1.Hebei Provincial Key Lab for Meteorology and Eco-environment,Meteorological Institute of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;2.College of Resources and Environment,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China)

2008, 29(04):  414-419. 

Asbtract ( 9938 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the climatic data of 85 meteorologica stations in Hebei Province in 1965-1999,the temporal and spatial variation of the reference evapotranspiration and its relationship to the climate change by using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation were analyzed.The results showed that the annual and four seasons' reference evapotranspiration in Hebei Province significantly declined(α=0.01).The reference evapotranspiration quickest declined in spring and then in summer,while it slowly declined in autumn and slowest in winter.The decline rate of the mean annual of the reference evapotranspiration was by 43.58mm per ten years.The spatial distribution of the decreasing extent of the reference evapotranspiration was different in the different regions in Hebei Province.It had a remarkable decline in Langfang areas and the South of Langfang areas with the reducing rate above 40mm per ten years,while it slightly declined in the North parts of Hebei Province with 35mm per ten years.The reference evapotranspiration not significantly declined in Qinhuangdao areas.The results of correlation analysis between the reference evapotranspiration and meteorological factors showed that the drops of wind speed and sunshine hours were founded to be the most important meteorological factors which affected reference evapotranspiration variation trends in Hebei Province,while the air temperature increase had not significant effect on the references evapotranspiration change.

Retrieval of Evapotranspiration in Zhalong Wetland Based on SEBAL Model

ZENG Li-hong1,2,SONG Kai-shan1,ZHANG Bai1,DU Jia1,2(1.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun 130012,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

2008, 29(04):  420-426. 

Asbtract ( 7832 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Zhalong Wetland was selected as a case study region.The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land(SEBAL) model combined with Landsat-7 ETM+ image,DEM and meteorological data of 12 stations near Zhalong wetland were used to inverse land surface fluxes,such as net radiation,soil heat flux and sensible heat flux.Then the latent heat flux was calculated through energy balance equation and the daily evapotranspiration was estimated.The spatial distribution characteristic of daily evapotranspiration was analyzed by referencing land-use map of 2001.It was found that the water body and marshland were at high evapotranspiration rate,while the paddy field,grassland and woodland took the second place,and the dry land,unused land and residential area were at lowest evapotranspiration rate,which were accorded with the evapotranspiration theory.The result showed that SEBAL model had considerable practicability in estimating regional evapotranspiration.

Characteristic of Latent Heat Flux in Semi-arid Sandy Grassland of Inner Mongolia

NI Pan1,2,JIN Chang-jie1,WANG An-zhi1,GUAN De-xin1,QU Cui-ping1,2,SHI Ting-ting1,2(1.Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

2008, 29(04):  427-431. 

Asbtract ( 9116 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the measurement of the latent and sensible heat flux by open-path eddy covariance(OPEC) system and meteorological observation system in Horqin grassland,a semi-arid sandy grassland in Inner Mongolia,during 1st and 26th Sept.2007,the status of energy balance closure was evaluated and the relationship between the diurnal variations of grassland latent heat flux and meteorological factors was analyzed.The results showed that the energy balance closure was 82.7%,which suggested that the latent heat flux and sensible heat flux measured by OPEC system at the grassland site were reasonable and the result was accorded to the range of literature reported energy closure measurements.The latent heat flux was linearly related to the net radiation by the 30 minutes mean value.The latent heat flux was higher in the daytime than at night and reached at the peak value at noon,while the daily peak of the latent heat flux and the net radiation appeared at same time.The peak value of the temperature and the vapor pressure deficit had a two to three hours lag behind the peak value of the latent heat flux.The relative humidity at the peak value of the latent heat flux was the lowest within a day.The average total daily latent heat flux during the growing period was 5.44MJ·m-2,which was equivalent to 2.21mm evapotranspiration.The total daily latent heat flux had an exponential relationship with the total daily net radiation.

Analysis of Seasonal Changes of Water Quality in Miyun Reservoir and Reaches of Its Main Influents

YU Yi-lei,WANG Qing-suo(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Dryland Farming and Water Saving,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081,China)

2008, 29(04):  432-435. 

Asbtract ( 6996 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The water quality in Miyun Reservoir and reaches of its main influents including Chaohe River,Baihe River and Qingshuihe River was monitored and analyzed in 2006.The results showed that the difference of the annual average pH was small,while the pH was lowest in rainy season,relative lower in winter and higher in the other seasons.The concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate in Miyun Reservoir were lower than that in its influents.Among three rivers,the highest concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate were found in Chaohe River,while they were lowest in Qingshuihe River.The low concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate were found during plant growing season,namely from May to September,while they were high in the other months,namely from January to April and from November to December.The concentration of phosphorus in Miyun Reservoir was lower than that in Chaohe River and Baihe River,but it was higher than that in Qingshuihe River.The highest values of phosphorus concentration in Chaohe River and Baihe River were found in July.The COD concentration in Miyun Reservoir was higher than that in other three influents.The COD concentration in Qingshuihe River was the highest,because of the drainage of the waste water rich in organic matters from fishponds along the river.The highest COD values in Miyun Reservoir and its influents were found from July to September,while they were lowest in January and December.

Analysis of Forest Resources Changes and Effectiveness of Aerial Seeding in Xianyang City Based on GIS and RS

XU Jun-chang1,2,WEI Hai-yan1,WANG Yong2,ZHAO Yi-bing2,Shang Xiao-ning3,Dong Xiao-wen2(1.College of Tourism and Environment,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710062,China;2.Xianyang Meteorological Bureau,Xianyang 712000,China;3.Institute of Agro-meteorological Science of Xianyang City,Xianyang 712000,China)

2008, 29(04):  436-439. 

Asbtract ( 7991 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Changes of forest resources in Xianyang City in recent 20 years and the effectiveness of aerial seeding in Xianyang City since 1992 were analyzed by using TM images of 1988,CBERS images of 2007 and NOAA AVHRR NDVI data from 1988 to 2007,based on the GIS and RS.The results showed that the forest coverage rate in Xianyang City had been significantly improved,after many years' artificial forestation,closing hillsides to facilitate forestation,and returning farmland to forests.The changes of forest types in the district of aerial seeding had a strong correlation with aerial seeding,and the NDVI value of main areas of aerial seeding had uptrend as a whole.The aerial seeding had a great effect on improving forest cover in Xianyang City.

Influence of Climate During Field Growing Season on Quality of Tobacco Leaf in Yunnan Province

HUANG Zhong-yan1,ZHU Yong1,DENG Yun-long2,HUANG Wei3,NI Xia3(1.Center of Agro-meteorology and Remote Sensing Application of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650034,China;2.Yunnan Tobacco Science and Research Institute,Yuxi 653100,China;3.Zhaotong Municipal Tobacco Company,Zhaotong 657000,China)

2008, 29(04):  440-445. 

Asbtract ( 10522 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the research results and literatures in recent years,the uniqueness of the climate for the cured tobacco in Yunnan Province was demonstrated by using tobacco ecology and cultivation theory,and the cause of the climate formation,and the advantage and the disadvantage of the climate for the quality peculiarity of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco was analyzed.The importance of the matching and the distribution of the radiation,temperature and precipitation during the field growing season were emphasized.Generally the climate conditions including the radiation,temperature and precipitation during the tobacco growing season did not have any advantages.But the matching and the distribution of the radiation,temperature and precipitation during the field growing season were unique,which was the main cause of the climate formation for a high flue-cured tobacco quality in higher sugar content,moderate nicotinamide and nitrogen content,partial low petroleum aether extract,and low kalium and chlorine content.The compensative effects of the radiation for the temperature increased the effectiveness of the temperature in the middle and high altitude regions.The application of the plastic film mulching in tobacco cultivation had a calefacient effect.These were the important reason that the flue-cured tobacco growing in Yunnan Province expanded to the upper limit of the altitude for tobacco growing with larger suitable growing areas.

Research on Operational Forecast Methods of Corn Yields in the United States of America(USA)

SONG Ying-bo,YANG Fei-yun,ZHENG Chang-ling,CHEN Hui(National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

2008, 29(04):  446-449. 

Asbtract ( 8529 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Using the data of per unit corn yield in 1961-2006,the daily average temperature and precipitation during the growing seasons of the fourteen representative stations in the corn growing areas of USA,the monthly average sea surface temperature of the West Pacific Ocean and the data of the circulation at the 500hPa height of the Northern Hemisphere,three forecasting models for USA corn yield based on the ground meteorological data,the ocean surface temperature and the circulation data respectively were built.The per unit corn yield in the USA in 1995-2004 was forecasted and the models were validated.The results showed that the average accuracy for ten years was over 95% for each model,but with relative high fluctuation.The integrative forecasting model was introduced to improve the forecast accuracy based on the historic accuracy of each model by a weighted method.The validation of the forecast accuracy for the integrative model was over 95% in 2005-2006.On the whole,the integrative model could meet the needs of operational service.

Analysis of Climate Impacts on Rice Yield in Taoyuan County of Hunan Province

YIN Chun-mei1,2,XIE Xiao-li1,2(1.Institute of Subtropical Agro-ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changsha 410125,China;2.National Observation Station of Taoyuan Agro-ecological System,CERN,Taoyuan 415700,China)

2008, 29(04):  450-453. 

Asbtract ( 7825 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the data of an in situ long-term paddy field experiment from 1995 to 2005 in Taoyuan County,Hunan Province,the relationship between early and late rice yields and meteorological factors were analyzed to understand the impacts of regional climatic factors on rice yields in the double-cropped rice production.The results showed that the climatic yields of early rice were positively correlated to the effective accumulative temperature above 10℃ from the heading to maturing period.However,the fluctuation of sunshine duration and variation of average daily minimum temperature during the growing period were the main causes for the great inter-annual undulation of the climatic yield of late rice.Based on the research results,corresponding cultivation measures were put forward.

Imputation Method of Missing Temperature Data Based on Neighborhood Features

TANG Yun-hui,GAO Yang-hua(Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 400039,China)

2008, 29(04):  454-457. 

Asbtract ( 7141 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

A new temperature interpolating method was put forward based on some factors,such as climate average value,distance and altitude variation.This method was on basis of daily temperature data collected in 35 meteorological stations of Chongqing from 1971 to 2000.It could be used to interpolate missing data in daily average temperature series.The cross verification experiment showed that the Mean Absolute Error(MAE) of the daily average temperature was between 0.2℃ to 0.8℃ with the average of 0.4℃ in the whole Chongqing municipality.It could also simulate daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature with highly reliable accuracy.This method was used to simulate hourly average temperature data of all seasons in Shapingba meteorological station.The MAE was less than 0.66℃,while the Mean Relative Error(MRE) was less than 3.2% except that 7.9% in winter.The correlation coefficient between observations and calculations was above 0.95.In this experiment,spring was represented by the first ten days of April,summer the first ten days of July,autumn the first ten days of November,and winter the first ten days of January.So this method could also be used to interpolate missing hourly observed temperature data.

Comparisons of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Agro-climate Factors in Complex Mountain Areas of Southwest China

ZHENG Xiao-bo1,LUO Yu-xiang2,YU Fei1,3,KANG Wei-min1,CHEN Juan1(1.Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate,Guiyang 550002,China;2.Guizhou Climate Center,Guizhou Meteorological Bureau,Guiyang 550002,China;3.Forestry College of Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China)

2008, 29(04):  458-462. 

Asbtract ( 9940 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Three kinds of interpolation methods including Inverse Distance Weight(IDW),Ordinary Kriging(OK) and Thin Plate Smoothing Spline(TPS) were used to interpolate monthly average air temperature,precipitation and relative humidity at the spatial resolution by 1.0 km×1.0km in 1971-2000 in 92 meteorological stations,which covered the mountainous areas of the Southwest China.The results were verified by the cross validation and the random validation.The results showed that TPS was of the best accuracy of three methods for temperature,precipitation and relative humidity,significantly for air temperature and precipitation.The difference of the accuracy of three interpolation methods for the aestival relative humidity was not significant.However,the interpolation accuracy for the temperature and relative humidity were greatly improved as the number of samples increased,but it was not obviously for the precipitation.

Waterlog Forecast at Villages and Towns Level in Liaoning Province Based on DEM

LU Zhong-yan,YUAN Zi-peng,CHEN Yan-qiu,SUN Xin(Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory,Shenyang 110016,China)

2008, 29(04):  463-466. 

Asbtract ( 6963 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

To meet the requirements for waterlog forecast in the weather forecast,the waterlog occurrences at villages and towns level in Liaoning Province based on DEM were forecasted.The directions of water flow and convergence capacity grids were analyzed by using the basic topographic data of the 1:250000 scale DEM for Liaoning Province,based on geographic information system(GIS) platform.The Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number(SCS) hydrology model was debugged.The actual terrain runoff was obtained by coupling the runoff model with the converge ability.According to the corresponding relationship between converge and waterlog grade,the meteorological waterlog risk grade was gained.The waterlog occurrence was forecasted in a weather process.The forecasted results were consistent to the actual happening.

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Integrated Chilling Injury Index for Banana in Guangdong Province

DU Yao-dong1,LI Chun-mei1,MAO Hui-qin2,TANG Li-sheng1(1.Climate Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510080,China;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

2008, 29(04):  467-471. 

Asbtract ( 8139 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the winter meteorological data in 1962-2003 in 77 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province.The integrated chilling injury index for banana was calculated and validated by the Empirical Orthogonal Function and the Wavelet Analysis methods.The results showed that the integrated chilling injury index for banana throughout the Guangdong Province mainly assumed the spatial distribution patterns in a whole consistency as well as in difference between the North Pearl River Delta and the East-west of Guangdong Province.The fluctuation of the integrated chilling injury index for banana was strongest in 1970's and then in 1960's,while it was the weakest in 1980's and gradually became stronger in 1990's.It was found by Wavelet Analysis that the temporal coefficient of the first eigenvector significantly showed a two-four years period in 1970's and in 1990's.The temporal coefficient of the second eigenvector significantly showed a two-four years period in 1970's and in 1990's as well,while it significantly showed a six-eight years period in 1980's.The results would provide foundation for regionalization,evaluation and prediction of the banana chilling injury.

Risk Analysis of Agricultural Drought for Winter Wheat During Growing Period in Anhui Province

CHEN Xiao-yi1,MA Xiao-qun1,SUN Xiu-bang2(1.Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Satellite Remote Sensing ofAnhui Province,Hefei 230031,China;2.Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China)

2008, 29(04):  472-476. 

Asbtract ( 10251 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The risk degrees of drought during growing period of winter wheat and its impacts on winter wheat yield were analyzed by using the integrated moisture index and the meteorological data of 78 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2006 in Anhui Province.The results showed that in terms of spatial distribution of drought,the agricultural drought risk of winter wheat during growing period increased gradually from the South to the North in Anhui Province,while the most parts of the North Huai Rive were with serious risk of droughts and regions between Huai River and Yangtze River were no drought risk region.In terms of the temporal distribution of drought,the greatest drought risk was during grain filling and harvest stages,while the jointing-heading stage was with moderate drought risk and with low drought risk during overwintering and tillering stage.In terms of inter-annual variations,although tendencies of drought risks in different regions were different,the drought risks increased significantly since 2000 in all regions.The yield loss of winter wheat was closely related to drought occurrence period.The drought occurred during jointing and filling stage would lead to most significant yield loss.The longer the drought lasted and the greater the drought intensive was,the greater the yield loss was.

Prediction of Meteorological Suitability Grades for Occurrence of First Generation of Corn Borer in Jilin Province

YUAN Fu-xiang1,2,LIU Shi2,GUO Wei3,HU Yan-quan2(1.College of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;2.Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062,China; 3.Meteorological Bureau of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062,China)

2008, 29(04):  477-480. 

Asbtract ( 7767 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The meteorological conditions for the occurrence of corn borer were divided into 5 grades.It was supposed that each meteorological factor was linear with the occurrence of corn borer and all of factors were addable.The predict equation of meteorological suitability grade for the occurrence of the first generation of corn borer in Jilin Province was constructed.The equation was validated by the historic data of meteorology and occurrence of the corn borer in recent 26 years.The meteorological suitability grade for the occurrence of the corn borer in 2007 was predicted.The results showed that the model could be used for monitoring and prediction of meteorological suitability grade for the occurrence of corn borer.

Influence of Meterological Factors from May to July on Occurrence of Potato Late Blight in Liangshan Prefecture of Sichuan Province

CAO Yan-qiu1,RUAN Jun2,FANG Peng1,LUO Qing 3,LI Da-zhong4,ARMUCHONG 5,HUANG Dou-min4,HU Qiao-juan5,CHEN Yuan-zhi5(1.Meteorological Bureau of Liangshan Prefecture,Xichang 615000,China;2.Agriculture Bureau of Liangshan Prefecture,Xichang 615000,China;3.Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorologicac Administration,Chengdu 610071,China;4.Agricultural Technological Extension Station of Mianning County,Mianning 615600,China;5.Agricultural Technological Extension Station of Zhaojue County,Zhaojue 616150,China)

2008, 29(04):  481-484. 

Asbtract ( 7836 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the data of the experiments on seedtime in four sites,namely in Chengxiang with altitude at 1823m,Tuowu with altitude at 2144m,Qingheng with altitude at 1659m and Shangyou with altitude at 2574m,in Mianning County of Liangshan Prefecture of Sichuan Province,and data of the occurrence of the potato late blight,the meteorological causes and the dynamic characteristics of occurrence and epidemiology for potato late blight were analyzed.The results showed that the main period of occurrence and epidemic of potato late blight was from the last ten days of May to beginning of July.During the first ten days of May and the first ten days of June,the potato late blight would occur in five to ten days if the meteorological factors,such as the sequential rainy days lasted more than five days and the relative humidity was higher than 75% in successive six days,which was suggested to be the warning indexes for the occurrence and epidemic of potato late blight.The prevention measures should be taken in five days when these warning indexes were fulfilled.

Stepwise Regression Prediction Model for Cotton Cold Damage in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

CHEN Yue-yi,GUO Jian-ping(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

2008, 29(04):  485-490. 

Asbtract ( 7539 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

In order to make relevant agricultural precaution in time and reduce the impacts of the cold disaster on cotton production,the cotton heat indexes were calculated and the cool injury indexes were defined in the main cotton production regions in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,by using the data of mean daily air temperature,cotton growing period and local cotton yields from 1961 to 2005.The occurrence status and extend of the cool injury were well decided in main cotton regions in Xinjiang during the predicted year.Considering 74 types of atmospheric circulation characteristics(ACC),the stepwise regression models of cotton heat indexes were set up,which was monthly calculated from the cotton seeding to stopping growth in the main cotton regions of Xinjiang.The results showed that each model could well forecast heat status in each region during the cotton growing period,and the all of the accuracy rate was above 90%.The characteristics of polar vortex in high latitude before the predicted month had important effect on the heat conditions of cotton growth in Xinjiang.The validation showed that the predicting accuracy rate for cotton heat indexes was effectively improved and the cold years were predicted more accurately by the method of rolling forecasting monthly.This study provided a favorable basis for the arrangement and measures of the cotton production.

Changes of Meteorological Disasters and Their Impacts on Grain Crop Yield in Ningxia

WU Yan-juan1,LI Yu-e1**,LIU Yun-tong1,HUANG Yan2(1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment & Climate Change,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081,China;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)

2008, 29(04):  491-495. 

Asbtract ( 7894 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The data of annual precipitation,hail occurrence,frost-free period from 23 meteorological stations in 1961-2004 in Ningxia,and the data of the grain crop yields,such as rice,wheat,corn and potato,total grain grain crop yields and area affected by disaster in 1991-2006 were used to analyze the variability of important meteorological disasters and their impacts on grain crop yield in Ningxia.The results indicated that the drought index increased with fluctuation.The intensity and frequency of drought increased,and the impacts of drought increased.The degree and the area of hail occurrences increased,though the annual average occurrence showed a declining trend.The frost-free period lengthened,and the frost period shortened.The main meteorological disaster affecting crop and grain crop yield was drought.The impacts of cold and hail disasters varied according to their distribution and occurrence time.The crop growing period and geographic distribution of the crop planting was related to the impacts of cold and hail disasters.

Forecast of Suitable Grade of Meteorological Conditions for Occurrences of Rice Planthoppers in Fujian Province

CHEN Hui1,GUAN Rui-feng2,YANG Kai1,LIN Jing1,WANG Jia-yi1,LI Li-chun1,MA Zhi-guo1(1.Institute of Meteorological Science of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350001,China;2.Plant Protection Station of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350003,China)

2008, 29(04):  496-498. 

Asbtract ( 7846 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the data of meteorology and occurrences of rice planthoppers during 1975 to 2006 in fourteen counties of Fujian Province,the relation between occurrence level of rice planthoppers and meteorological conditions was analyzed.The results showed that the key meteorological factors which affected the occurrence and development of rice planthoppers in Fujian Province were the temperature and rain days in the second and third ten days of June and September respectively.The exponential index model for the meteorological grade index was established based on the key meteorological factors.The validation results by the historical test showed that the average correctness rate of forecast was 69.1% by comparing meteorological grade with actual grade.The meteorological grade of the occurrence fastigium of early rice planthoppers in the last ten days of June in 2007 in Fujian was forecasted with forecast correctness rate by 92.1%.The model could be put into the operational application.

Improvement of Temperature and Humidity Index in Forecast of Wheat Scab in Shanghai

WU Chun-yan1,LI Jun2(1.Beijing Climate Centre,Beijing Meteorological Bureau,Beijing 100089,China;2.Shanghai Climate Centre,Shanghai Meteorological Bureau,Shanghai 200030,China)

2008, 29(04):  499-501. 

Asbtract ( 8364 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The scab is a usual disease of wheat.The temperature and humidity have important effects on the occurrence of wheat scab.So choosing proper temperature and humidity indices is the key for acquiring higher forecasting exactness rate.The change of early heading of wheat was analyzed by using the data of meteorological and wheat stages and wheat scab data.As the beginning of the wheat early heading stage became earlier,the forecast accurate rate declined by the old indexs,which were the mean temperature above 15℃ and the mean relative humidity by 85% in continual three days from the second ten days of April to the second ten days of May.Comparison and practical forecast tests showed that the new index was the mean temperature higher above 13℃ and the mean relative humidity by 83% in continual three days from the early heading stage of wheat to the second ten days of May.The practical application showed that the forecast accurate rate by the new index was improved from 60.0% to 83.3 %.

Developing of Chilling Damage Prediction Model for Litchi in Guangzhou Based on Xieji Method

LI Nan1,4,YE Cai-hua2,LIAO Shu-hua1,HUO Zhi-guo3,JIANG Hui-fei1(1.College of Resource and Environment,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China;2.Climate Center of Beijing,Beijing 100089;3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;4.Climate Center of Shandong Province,Jinan 250031)

2008, 29(04):  502-506. 

Asbtract ( 7011 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The independence of prediction factors is subjected to be ignored when the prediction factors are selected using a traditional long-term agrometeorological prediction method,thus reducing actual prediction effect.The purpose of this paper is to develop a Litchi cold damage prediction model for Guangzhou region using a different method named Xieji.Firstly,based on analyzing correlations between hazard factors and prophase atmospheric circulation factors for a period of 1962-2005,preliminary predictors were selected,then independence of the selected factors were tested by Xieji method,and finally prediction equations using prediction factors with a good independence were established.The model was tested using historical data,and accuracy of model simulation was above 86.4%.The model was then applied to Guangzhou for 2007-2008 to predict Litchi chilling damage.The results of this application were close to real values,and it indicates that this method was valid for a long-term agrometeorological prediction.

Climate Index and Risk Assessment of Frozen Injury of Nanfeng Tangerine(Citrus reticulata)

YIN Jian-min1,2,MIAO Qi-long1,LI Ying-chun2,HE Shou-ren3,ZHANG Jian-ping2(1.Nanjing Information Engineering University,Nanjing 210044,China;2.Institute of Meteorological Science of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330046,China;3.Meteorological Bureau of Nanfeng County,Nanfeng 344500,China)

2008, 29(04):  507-510. 

Asbtract ( 8875 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the data of the minimum air temperature in winter from 1961 to 2000 and of the frozen injury in Nanfeng County,the quantitative climate index for the frozen injury of Nanfeng tangerine(Citrus reticulata) was determined.The maps of climate risk for the frozen injury of Nanfeng tangerine were produced through small grids estimation technique on the grid by 25m×25m based on Geographic Information System(GIS).The land use map interpreted by the remote sensing was folded on maps of the frozen injury distribution.The synthesized maps were fractionized to obtain the maps of the climate risk distribution of the frozen injury for Nanfeng tangerine.Based on the risk regionalization,the frozen injury risk assessment was carried out.The results showed that the period of the climate risk for the light frozen injury in the main production areas with low altitude was from four to five years,while it was 20 and 40 years for the moderate and severe frozen injury respectively.The general income period of time of Nanfeng tangerine was for 15 years.Therefore,the climate condition for the tangerine growing in Nanfeng County was advantageous with relative small climate risk.

Meteorological Forecast for Occurrence Grade of Over-summer Stripe Rust of Wheat in East Gansu Province

DUAN Jin-sheng1,3,WAN Xin2,ZHAO Jian-hou4,LI Jin-zhang5(1.Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA,Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China;2.Climate Center,Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China;3.Xifeng Agro-meteorological Experiment Station,Qingyang 745000,China;4.Zhenyuan Meteorological Bureau,Zhenyuan 744500,China;5.Plant Protection Station of Qingyang City,Qingyang 745000,China)

2008, 29(04):  511-513. 

Asbtract ( 7192 )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The correlation between the occurrence grade of the over-summer stripe rust of wheat and the key meteorological factors in the East of Gansu Province was analyzed.The results showed that the occurrence grade of the over-summer stripe rust of wheat was related to the temperature,precipitation,sunshine and relative humidity.The temperature in August,the precipitation in July and the relative humidity in August had significant impacts on the occurrence grade of the over-summer stripe rust of wheat.The ten days average temperature in the last ten day of July and the last ten days of August,the total precipitation in the last ten day of July and the last ten days of August,and the relative humidity in the last ten day of July and the last ten days of August were the key factors and critical period which affected the occurrence grade of the over-summer stripe rust of wheat.Based on the above results,a prediction equation for the occurrence grade of the over-summer stripe rust of wheat was established.The occurrence grade of the over-summer stripe rust of wheat for 2006 and 2007 was forecasted and the results was well accorded to the investigation results by the local plant protection station.