Table of Content

20 November 2011, Volume 32 Issue 04

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Review of Influence Factors on Greenhouse Gases Emission from Upland Soils and Relevant Adjustment Practices

XIE Li yong,YE Dan dan,ZHANG He,GUO Li ping

2011, 32(04):  481-487.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.001

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Cropland is one of the greenhouse gas emission sources, but also a possible sink at the other side. The influence factors of greenhouse gas emission from cropland soils especially from upland soils, including soil temperature, soil moisture, soil properties, fertilization and tillage methods, were reviewed. The possible mitigation practices which include optimum nitrogen fertilization management, nitrification inhibitor usage and carbon sink enhancement measures which include manure amendment, returning straw to the soil, conservation tillage were put forward. The implement possibilities and possible extension problems were analyzed too.

Analysis of Projected Variation on Temperature and Precipitation in Inner Mongolia under SRES A1B Scenario

MA Jian yong, XU Yin long, PAN Jie, JIANG Jiang

2011, 32(04):  488-494.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.002

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The responses of temperature and precipitation during 1961-1990(baseline) and 2011-2100 under SRES A1B scenario in Inner Mongolia was analyzed by using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies), a regional climate model system driven by HadCM3Q0. The results showed that PRECIS might reproduce spatial distribution and frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia during 1961-1990. Under A1B Scenario, compared with baseline, the high value centers of annual mean temperature would be near Ejina county and Hulunbuir, increasing by 2~5.6℃ in next 90 years, and the low value center would be located at central south of Inner Mongolia, increasing by 1.4~4.8℃. The 30 years average value of annual mean temperature during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 would increase by 1.7℃, 3.5℃ and 5.1℃,respectively. And the warming tendency of temperature in each period would perform remarkably. Meanwhile, frequency distribution of daily mean temperature indicated that potential possibility of high temperature event might rise. In terms of annual precipitation, regions only in the western desert and parts of Hulunbuir would perform decreased tendency, others would increase by 10%~20% in next 90 years, and the high value centers would be near the south of Chifeng and Tongliao. As far as annual variation be concerned, the 30 years average value of annual precipitation during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 would increase by 10.7%, 17.1% and 14.1%, respectively. Compared with baseline, from frequency distribution of future daily precipitation, it showed the occurrence of heavy precipitation events might increase.

Research on Model of Solar Radiation Estimation in Qinghai Province

ZHOU Bingrong, LI Fengxia, YAN Liangdong, ZHANG Haijing, HE Yongqing

2011, 32(04):  495-499.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.003

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Based on the oretical model of solar radiation and relevant parameters, the annual and monthly solar radiation grid model in Qinghai plateau was established, by using Qinghai DEM model and angstrom climatology model. The model showed good simulated effect with 7.40% relative error. Spatial distribution of monthly and annual mean solar radiation in last 30 years（1970-2000）in Qinghai province was calculated by this model. The results showed that the spatial distribution of solar radiation was uneven with 6771.95 MJ/㎡of mean value. There were 3 high value regions and 1 low value region for annual solar radiation in Qinghai province. The high value regions included Kekexili, the south of Chaidamu basin and the west of Dachaidan, and the low value region located in Hehuang valley. Spatial distribution of monthly solar radiation was different in regions and seasons. The high value was in May and July, the low value was in December, and their mean value was 717.24, 701.96 and 352.63 MJ/㎡respectively.

Spatial temporal Variation Characteristics of Average Temperature in Guangdong

DING Lijia，WANG Chunlin，LING Liangxin

2011, 32(04):  500-506.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.004

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Based on 1960-2009 temperature observation data collected from 37 meteorological stations in Guangdong province，the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of average temperature change over recent 50 years was identified by using linear trend estimation，M K mutation testing methods，to find out the spatial temporal variation characteristics of average temperature in Guangdong and provide scientific basis for using and development the climate resources in Guangdong reasonably. The results showed that annual and seasonal average temperature in Guangdong had increased since 1980s，with annual rising rate of 0.20℃/10y（P＜0.05）.Winter had greatest contribution to the warming. Its changing rate reached 0.34℃/10y（P＜0.05）. Temperature variation was unbalanced over Guangdong province. Guangdong pearl river delta and the southeastern coastal region had the most significant〖JP2〗 temperature increase. Its annual warming rate reached 0.25～0.40℃/10y（P＜0.05） and winter′s reached 0.43～0.55℃/10y（P＜0.05）.Warming mutations occurred early，mostly from 1980s and changed dramatically in those areas. In northern Guangdong province，temperature variation was less significant. In spring and summer，annual temperature drop even happened in northeastern region. Except for winter，the temperature mutation test results in other seasons were not significant.

Analysis on Total Cloud Cover Change of Five Provinces in Central China Last 47 Years Based on EOF Method

XU Qiongfang，GAO Qingjiu，SHI Yan，PAN Hongxiang

2011, 32(04):  507-513.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.005

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Based on monthly cloud cover observation data from 20 global exchange stations of five provinces (Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi province) in central China during 1959-2005, the seasonal/annual variation and regional distribution of total cloud cover in last 47 years were analyzed. The results showed that both of average annual and seasonal total cloud cover in central China decreased in last 47 years. Variation of total cloud cover changed among different regions, and there were two kinds of typical space-time distribution. One was positive variation for both annual and seasonal, and increasing from south to north. Its center located in the northern middle part of central China. The cloud cover of spring and autumn declined and there was no obvious change in summer and winter from 1959 to 2005. The other was reverse variation on the two sides of the Yangtze river, obvious in annual variation.

Analysis of Precipitation Cycle Characteristics and Its Influencing Factors in East China

LIAO Liangqing

2011, 32(04):  514-520.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.006

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According to the monthly precipitation data from 1951 to 2010 of 32 sites in east China, and based on the study of the precipitation cycle characteristics in east China with Multi taper Method (MTM) and wavelet analysis method, sunspots, related circulation indices such as Southern Oscillation Index, and precipitation series were used for cross wavelet analysis to discuss the main factors influencing the precipitation cycle characteristics of east China. The results showed that the precipitation in east China had prominent cycles both on interannual and interdecadal scales, among which 11.6~12.3 years cycle(interdecadal scale) was the most significant, following by 6.0 years cycle and 4.0 years cycle (interannual scale), and different cycles influences on the precipitation were related to different periods. Among all the factors which had significant influences on the precipitation cycles of east China, sunspot activity had the most prominent impact, which was mainly reflected in the precipitations 12 years cycle; the Southern Oscillation Index, the Subtropical HighIntensity Index of West Pacific and the Subtropical HighIntensity Index of South China Sea also have evident influences on the precipitation of east China, which were reflected in the precipitations 12 years cycle and 2~8 years cycle. 

Analysis of Characteristics of Integrated Temperature in Each 1℃ Range in Guizhou

GU Shuhong,YAN Xiaodong,SHI Yan,XU Dandan,CHEN Zhongyun

2011, 32(04):  521-524.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.007

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Integrated temperature in each 1℃ range of Guizhou were calculated and analyzed in this study. The results showed that integrated temperature of each 1℃ range was the manifestation of integrated temperature definition, which reflected the distribution of active integrated temperature in each temperature range, and also showed the time of duration in the range. Integrated temperature in each range changed with a single peak curve, the average peak value of the province emerged in 22℃, and each weather station was between 17℃(Weining) and 27℃(Chishui, Songtao, Congjiang, etc.), which linearly droped in elevation by 0.51℃·100m-1. The temperature range of the peak value reflected the total heat resources, and it also showed the mainly distribution in temperature ranges of heat resources, by which could know heat resources more in depth.

Analysis on CO2 Flux during Growth Season of Natural Broadleaved Mixed Forest in Xiaoxinganling Mountains

YU Chenglong, LIU Dan

2011, 32(04):  525-529.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.008

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The research on CO2 flux in forest system was one of the hot topics in global changes. The CO2  flux during growth season of natural broadleaved mixed forest in Xiaoxinganling mountains was analyzed, based on observed data continuously in 2008 by using openpath eddy covariance system. The results showed that the CO2 flux changed from -0.46 to 0.42 mg·m-2·s-1during the whole growth season. The maximum uptake occurred at 9 o’clock during June and the maximum efflux occurred at 5 o’clock during July. During daytime, the carbon uptake increased with the temperature increasing when it was below 26.63℃. On the contrary, it decreased with temperature increasing when it was above 2663℃. During nighttime, the maximum efflux occurred 13.50℃. In all, it showed that carbon assimilation was 212.32 g·m-2 during the whole growth season of natural broadleaved mixed forest in Xiaoxinganling mountains in 2008.

Simulation of CO2 Emission from Rice Fields under Different Cropping Systems in Central Sichuan Hilly Area with DCDC Model

SUN Yuan yuan, SUN Yong jian, WANG Rui ting, FENG Jian dong,LI Chun lu, MA Jun, LI Shou cheng

2011, 32(04):  530-537.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.009

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CO2 emission from rice fields under different rotation system, including flooded paddy fields to paddy to rice fields (PF), rapeseed to paddy rice fields (RR) and winter wheat to paddy rice fields (RW), was simulated by using DNDC model, based on the high resolution(1m) IKONOS satellite. The experiment was conducted from May 2005 to May 2006 in Jintang county, Sichuan province, a typical hilly area. The results showed that annual total flux CO2 emission from PF, RR and RW was 4102, 7512 and 8111 kg·ha-1, respectively. But the flux of CO2 emission for one cropping among the treatments was not significantly different. The total yield of RW was highest, followed by RR. Both of them was higher significant than PF. The flux of CO2 emission was 25.48 〖JP3〗and 3.36 kg·ha-1·d-1 during rice growing season and non growing season for PF. The flux of CO2 emission was 23.32 and 25.21 kg·ha-1·d-1 during rice growing season for RR and RW, and 19.34 and 20.96 kg·ha-1·d-1 during non growing seasonrespectively. Root respiratory was the main soil respiratory, which contributed to 59.14%-62.96% during the whole growth season for RR, RW, and PF.

Phenological Change of Populus simonii Carr And It′s Response to Air Temperature Variation in Last 30 Years in Inner Mongolia

CAO Yan fang,WEI Yu rong,YOU Li,LIU Peng tao,WU Qiu feng

2011, 32(04):  538-542.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.010

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Based on phonological and meteorological data from 24 phenology observation stations in Inner Mongolia in last 30 years,the phonological characters and trends of average spring sprout and autumn leaf fading of Populus simonii Carr were analyzed The results showed that spring sprout of  Populus simonii Carr was advanced with the rate of 1.4d/10y in last 30 years.The highest advanced phase of percentage ratio of annual was in 1990s,followed by 2000-2008.The date of Leaf fading postponed with the rate of 3.0 d/10y.The highest postponed phase of percentage ratio of annual was in 2000-2008.The spring sprout of Populus simonii Carr was significant negative correlation with the spring temperature (P<0.05),and the autumn leaf fading was significance positive correlation with autumn temperature (P<0.05),which indicated that the sprout advanced more with the spring temperature increasing,the leaf fading postponed more with autumn temperature increasing.

Response of Different Type Plants Phenology to Climate Change in East of Hexi Corridor

JIANG Jufang ，WANG Heling，WEI Yuguo,DING Wenkui

2011, 32(04):  543-549.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.011

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Based on the perennial plants (Salix matsudana and Aphis sophricola) phenology data during 1980-2004 and the annual plants (wheat and corn) phenology data during 1981-2008 from Wuwei meteorological bureau,the key phenology climate predicting model was established by using the methods of linear trend estimation,puffs related and SPSS software counts to stepwise regression and variance analysisThe results showed that the perennial woody plants differed from 20d to 38d,and the annual herbal plants differed from 11d to 30d,which showed plants phenology was sensitive to climate change.The perennial plants phenology were advanced in spring with linear trend -2.008~-3.246d/10y (P<0.05),and their autumn phenology were postponed with linear trend 6.631~7.108d/10y(P<0.01).The annual plants were advanced both in spring and summer phenology with linear trend -1.494~-4.122 d/10y (P<0.05),but the autumn phenology did not changed.For the perennial plants,green leaves stage prolonged 1.046~7.738d/10y,vegetative growth stage prolonged 0.877~8.454d/10y,accumulated substance stage prolonged 4.392~7.738d/10y and autumn growth stage prolonged 0.477~3.015d/10y.For annual plant,vegetative growth stage shortened 2.17~3.41d/10y,autumn reproduction growth stage prolonged 3.322d/10y.Average temperate,soil temperature (20cm,80cm and 160cm),average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature were main influenced meteorological factors both for perennial and annual plants.The perennial plant phenology advanced in spring and postponed in summer and autumn,but the annual plant phenology advanced in spring,summer and autumn.

Research on the Simulation Models of Phenophase and Leaf Number of Controlled Tomato

ZHANG Zhiyou,CAO Hongxin,CHEN Binglin,LIU Yan,ZHAO Tongmin,LIU Yongxia

2011, 32(04):  550-557.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.012

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Phenophase number leaf number models of controlled tomato were built in accordance with the principle,“physical development days are constant.Using the experiments data on variety (lines) and sowing date,and variety and season from different sites in Nanjing in 2009 and 2010,the models parameters were obtained,and the models were validated.The results indicated that when the phenophase model in this study was used to simulate a certain development period,the RMSE and the ADe between simulated and observed values were 2.65d and 3d from emergence to transplanting,1.51d and 1d from transplanting to flower bud,1.18d and 1d from flower bud to fruit setting,1.21d and 1d from fruit setting to fruit ripening period,respectively.The prediction accuracy of this phenophase model was higher than that of which model based on efficiency accumulate temperature.When the leaf number model was used to simulate the leaf number,RMSE and ADe between observation and simulation values were less than or equal to 0.5 leaves.It showed that the models developed in this paper could be used to predict the growth stage and leaf number of controlled tomato,and had better mechanism,general adaptability,and reliability.It could be used in digital management of controlled tomato.

Effects of Reduced UVB Radiation on Partial Physiological and Chemical Characteristics of Flue cured Tobacco in Different Growing Stage

JIAN Shao fen,DOGN Zhuo ya,CHEN Zong yu,TIAN Xian jiao,TAN Shu wen,WU Xiao xiao,YAN Kan

2011, 32(04):  558-564.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.013

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The effects of reduced UVB radiation (39.59% of natural intensity),which was obtained by covering with Mylar plastic membrane,on leaf water content (LWC),specific leaf weight (SLW),photosynthetic pigments,flavonoid (FV) and malondialdehyde (MDA) of different leaf positions in tobacco variety K326 were studied in different growing stages,eg fast growing period,physiological maturity period and technological maturity period,with field experiment.The results showed that there was a little influence of reduced UVB radiation on LWC in fast growing period,whereas SLW of middle and bottom leaves were decreased UVB radiation reduction in physiological maturity period and technological maturity period reduced LWC of middle and upper leaves,but improved SLW.Chlorophyll a and b (chl a,chl b) of middle leaf were decreased by reduced UVB radiation in fast growing period and physiological maturity period.However,chl a and chl b of middle and upper leaves were increased by UVB radiation reduction in technological maturity period.Reduced UVB radiation in fast growing period and physiological maturity period decreased MDA content and the changes of FV and caroteniod (car) were substantially opposite to MDA.The results indicated that high UVB radiation intensity in fast growing period was in favour of improving SLW of tobacco leaf,and high UVB radiation in fast growing period and physiological maturity period was promoting syntheses of chl and car ,Change of MDA had a certain relation with FV and car.

Characteristics Analysis of Temperature Change during Overwintering Period of Northward Winter Wheat in Irrigated Areas of Ningxia

MA Shan shan,MA Shi ming,ZHANG Xiao yu,XU Ying long,WANG Ya qiong,GAO Jing,SHAO Dan,MO Zhi hong

2011, 32(04):  565-570.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.014

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Based on the daily temperature data of 1961-2009 of eleven meteorological stations in the Irrigated Areas of Ningxia,the change characteristics of the temperature indicators was analyzed.The results showed that the minimum temperature in January in 1961-2009 was with -19.8℃,it increased by 3.9% compared to the time period before the northward winter wheat growing;The average temperature in January was with -7.4℃,it increased by 12.8% compared to the time period before the northward winter wheat growing,the average temperature in January lower than -9℃decreased by 75%,this indicated that the Irrigated Areas of Ningxia had already belonged to the suitable growing areas within the northern boundary of winter wheat. The total accumulated temperature above zero degree in growth period of winter wheat was with 1969.6 ℃·d,it increased by 11.1% compared to the time period before the northward winter wheat growing,whereas it could ensure the normal growth of winter wheat whether before or after the northward winter wheat growing. The accumulated temperature above zero degree before overwintering period of winter wheat was with 363 ℃·d,it increased by 10.3% compared to the time period before the northward winter wheat growing,which was close to 〖JP2〗the minimal requirement for the accumulated temperature above zero degree before overwintering period of winter wheat in the Northern China Plain. The negative accumulated temperature in overwintering period of winter wheat was with -586 ℃·d,it increased by 22.3% compared to the time period before the northward winter wheat growing,but it could still not meet the minimal requirement for the safe overwintering of winterness and strong winterness varieties of winter wheat in the Northern China Plain Early and timely sowing,enhancing the water and fertilizer managements were the key technical measures to ensure high yield of winter wheat which can increase the accumulated temperature above zero degree before overwintering period,breed strong seedlings and increase overwintering survival percentage.

Precise Comprehensive Agricultural Climate Division for Cotton in Henan Province

QI Bin,YU Wei dong,YUAN Jian yu,JIN Hui gang

2011, 32(04):  571-575.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.015

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Based on the geographic information and climate data from 114 meteorological stations in Henan province during 1971-2000,the climatic elements in grids of different growth phases of cotton,including average temperature,total precipitation and sunshine hours,were established by using gradient plus inverse distance squared technology.According to the climatic suitability models and the parameters in different stages of cotton growth,the climate suitability values of precipitation,temperature and sunshine hours in different growth phases were calculated.The comprehensive impact of three factors was evaluated by the relative weight method.Three regions for cotton planning in Henan province were divided by using agricultural climatic division factors,which were the most suitable region,the suitable region and the sub suitable region.The most suitable region included north,east and south west of Henan province,the suitable region included central southern part,and the sub suitable region included the west hilly region,the north mountain area and the south region of Huaihe River.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Growth Stages in North China

JI Xingjie,ZHU Yeyu,LIU Xiaoying,XIONG Shuping,WANG Ge

2011, 32(04):  576-581.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.016

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Based on the meteorological data from 18 agro meteorological stations and observed data of winter wheat growth stages during 1983-2005 in North China,the change of meteorological factors and growth stages of winter wheat and the impacts of climate change on growth stages were analyzed by using statistical analysis method.The results showed the annual variations of total precipitation,sunshine hours and diurnal temperature range were not obvious,the temperature increased significantly,especially in spring and winter as well as the minimum temperature.It was no change during sowing to regreening,but it advanced at the rate of 0.46d/y and 0.27 d/y at heading date and maturity date respectively.The tread of advancing heading with latitude increasing declined.Correlation analysis showed that there was significant positive correlation between the main growth stages of winter wheat and sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range,and significant negative correlation between the main growth stages of winter wheat and temperature and total precipitation except between maturity date and its amount in May.The results indicated that the average minimum temperature increasing was the key reason to advance winter growth dates,which could provide evidence for crop production to adapt to climate change in North China.

Relationship between Sugarcane Stem Elongation and Meteorological Factors and
Elongation Prediction in Gengma, Yunnan

ZHONG Chu, JIN Lili, ZHOU Chen, LU Zhenggang, LI Jinhui, CHEN Shaohua

2011, 32(04):  582-586.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.017

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Using the data of sugarcane stem elongation and corresponding meteorological data in stem elongating stage of newplanting sugarcane in Gengma county, Yunnan province from 2007 to 2010, the effects of meteorological factors on elongation of sugarcane were analyzed. The results showed that accumulated temperature (Ta), average temperature (T), rainfall (R) and sunshine hours (S) were the main factors that affected elongation of sugarcane. The first three factors were positive correlated with elongation of sugarcane at α=0.05 or α=0.01 levels. It was indicated that better rain, heat and light conditions were in favor of promoting elongation of sugarcane. The elongation of sugarcane was fitted with ten day Ta,〖JP3〗 T, R, S and corresponding growing days (D) from 2007 to 2009 by Richards function, and the comprehensive forecasting model was established.The absolute error of forecasting for ten day elongation of sugarcane stem in 2010 was 0.0~ 11.0cm with the average of 3.4cm. The results suggested that the forecasting model has a certain practicality.

Applicability of Different Photosynthesis Models for Winter Wheat in the
Lower Yangtze River

LI Yongxiu，YANG Zaiqiang，ZHANG Fucun

2011, 32(04):  588-592.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.018

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Based on four popular light response models of photosynthesis, i.e., the rectangular and non rectangular hyperbola models, exponential model and modified rectangular hyperbola model, we derived four comprehensive photosynthesis models for winter wheat including the impact of temperature and CO2concentration. Two independent experimental datasets were respectively used for parameter optimization and model validation. The results showed that the modified rectangular hyperbola model gave the best prediction in the four models, with the correlation coefficient (r) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between predicted and observed net photosynthetic rate being 0.925 and 1.666μmol·m-2·s-1, respectively. Due to inclusion of photoinhibition, the modified rectangular hyperbola model performed well under high light, therefore was most suitable for winter wheat in the lower Yangtze river. The results of this study were expected to provide references for model selection and application in winter wheat growth simulation and yield prediction. 

Application of HJ1 Satellite Data in Drought Monitoring

ZHONG Shiquan, LUO Yongming, MO Jianfei, JIA Dewei

2011, 32(04):  593-597.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.019

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HJ1 is the first small satellite constellation which dedicated to environment and disaster monitoring and forecasting in China. The land surface temperature (LST) over the arid regions were calculated by using the China Centre for Resources Satellite Data and HJ1B data, and the vegetation supply water index (VSWI) was obtained by fitting method with the aid of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different underlying surface. Drought monitoring was studied by using VSWI in Longlin county, Tianlin county and Xilin county. The results showed that drought monitoring with the aid of HJ1B data was a credible way. HJ1 was wide image width and relative high spatial resolution, which could provide decision support services for drought monitoring.

Analysis of Fine Spatial temporal Variation of Agroclimatic Heat Resource in Urumqi Changji Region of Xinjiang

PU Zongchao,ZHANG Shanqing，BIN Jianhua, DOU Xinying,FENG Zhimin

2011, 32(04):  598-606.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.020

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 Based on the daily average temperature and extreme minimum temperature data of sixteen meteorological stations during 1961-2009 in Urumqi city and Changji Hui national autonomous prefecture of Xinjiang (Urumqi Changji region), the fundamental fine spatial temporal change characteristic of various agroclimatic heat elements, such as the mean temperature of annual, January and July, the annual accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃,〖JP+1〗 frostfree period and the negative accumulated temperature in winter, were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, Mann Kendall test and three dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and inverse distance square weighting residual error revising based on ArcGIS. The main results were as the follows： the agroclimatic heat resource was very obviously different in different regions in Urumqi Changji region. Generally, the average temperature of annual and July were higher, and the annual accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ and the frost free period were more in plain and valley than that in mountain areas，and western were more than eastern，but by the influence of winter inversion, January mean temperature was higher and the negative accumulated temperature was less in piedmont sloping plain to hillside central of Tianshan mountain than in northern plains and higher mountain areas in UrumqiChangji region. In the background of global warming, agroclimatic heat resources have a significant increasing in recent 49 years in UrumqiChangji region, generally, the mean temperature of annual, January and July,accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃, frost free period have a significant increasing trend, and them had the discontinuity increased in 1973 to 2004 respectively, negative accumulated temperature had a significant decreasing trend and it had the discontinuity reduced in 1988. But the change range of before and after various agroclimatic heat elements have discontinuity changed were larger in plain than in mountain areas, and larger in urban than in suburban.

Study on the Spatial Interpolation Method for Daily Mean Air 
Temperature over Complex Terrain in Hunan Province

DU Dongsheng, LIAO Yufang, ZHAO Fuhua

2011, 32(04):  607-614.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.021

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Based on daily mean air temperature data from 97 stations in Hunan province during 1961-2008, spatial interpolation methods for daily mean air temperature over complex terrain was analyzed. Six methods were used for calculating a gridded product with a high resolution of 500m×500m, checking errors by using observational data from 1215 automatic weather stations during 2007-2008, and discussing different methods under the circumstance of different time, different regions and different topography. The results showed that the results from different methods were similar. However, the validity of methods was different depending on different regions, different elevations and different seasons. The results were better than traditional method and they could provide daily high resolution gridded data for the fine agro climatic regionalization in Hunan province.

Evaluation on Drought at Maize Growth Stage in Sichuan
Basin Based on Water Budget Index

ZHANG Yufang,WANG Ruitingp,CHEN Dongdongp,ZHOU Yunp,WANG Mingtianp,LI Jinjian

2011, 32(04):  615-620.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.022

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Drought was one of the most important restricting factors to growth and development and yield formation for maize in Sichuan basin. To evaluate the severity of drought at different maize growth stages in Sichuan basin and provide a scientific basis for relevant departments to take effective hazard reduction measures, the drought level index was selected and drought distribution, such as drought intensity and frequency, in Sichuan basin was analyzed. The drought index was analyzed by using a maize water budget model including precipitation and crop water requirement, as variables. Drought index in Sichuan basin was classified by analysing the typical drought years and the corresponding drought data in history. The spatial drought distribution in different maize growth stages, drought intensity and frequency in recent 50 years was conducted by ArcGIS. The results showed that the maize drought occurred in high frequency between jointing stage and milk ripe stage. Sichuan basin was divided into three arid areas, and the south of Daba mountains, Fu river and Tuo river basin had the highest drought frequency through the whole growth season, generally greater than 50%.

An Improved Comprehensive Meteorological Drought Index CI new and Its Applicability Analysis

WANG Chunlin, GUO Jing，XUE Lifang, DING Lijia

2011, 32(04):  621-626.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.023

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 Aiming at the "unreasonable drought aggravate" problem of the comprehensive meteorological drought index CI, using linear decreasing precipitation and potential evapotranspiration accumulating methods, an improved comprehensive meteorological drought index, CI new, was put forward in the paper. Comparing with CI, applicability characteristics of CI new was analyzed from the aspects of describing ability of drought course, draught frequency features and hysteresis effect. The results showed that: (1) CI new decreased steadily during no precipitation period, therefore, CI new effectively avoided the "unreasonable drought aggravate" problem of CI, and was able to describe occurrence, development and end of drought process with rich details. (2) There was no statistical significant difference between drought frequency derived from CI new and that from CI, however, since statistical period of new relative moisture index MI 90new extended to 90 days, CI new was enabled to show hysteresis of drought season beginning month (November) to less rain season beginning month (October). The paper provides a reference when CI new is popularized to other places of China.
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Forecast of the Beginning Date for Potato Late Blight in Linxia

MA Xujie,ZHANG Wenjie,YANG Hailing,LUO Huirong, DONG Ping,YANG Xinxia,ZOU Yaxuan

2011, 32(04):  627-631.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.024

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Potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans de Bary)has been a uptrend in recent years in Linxia Hui autonomous prefecture (addr.Linxia) as the production scale of potato for seeds and vegetables was extended quickly, and this disease has become one of the main limited factors in the production of potato in this prefecture.The traditional forecasting method for this disease was usually for the drought mountain area in this prefecture, and its accuracy was very lower when used in the plain plateau area and high humid mountain area in this prefecture. In order to meet the need of potato production,the two linear regression models to forecast the beginningdate of potato late blight (Y) were built, based on the three year survey data in different areas. Y＝9.1699-0.0153X,based on the rainfall in the first ten days of August (X), was very suitable for the drought mountain area, and its forecasting accuracy was 100%. The beginning date of potato late blight (Y) in thehigh humid mountain areawas related close to the temperature (X1) and air humidity (X2) of the first ten days of July, and the forecasting model was Y=13.8180-0.1970X1-0.0403X2 ,with a accuracy of 83%. 

Risk Assessment of Extreme Climate on Olive Yield in Fujian Province

CHEN Jiajin, WANG Jiayi, LI Lichun, LIN Jing, YANG Kai, MA Zhiguo, XU Zonghuan

2011, 32(04):  632-637.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.025

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Risk assessment on olive had significant for its rational distribution and disaster prevention and mitigation. Risk index system of impacts of extreme climate on olive yield in Fujian province, including hazard of the disaster causing factors, vulnerability of the hazard affected body and disaster carrying capability, was established in this paper, based on meteorological data, planting area and yield of olive, and other socio economic data. The risk assessment was conducted by this model. The results showed that light risk region was located in the southern of Changle city, where disaster causing factors were lighter and latitude was low. Severe risk region was located in Youxi, Shanghang, mountainous areas of Ningde, inland counties of Fuzhou, northwest mountainous areas of Putian, west of Anxi and west mountainous areas of Zhangzhou, because disaster causing factors were higher in these regions, especially for freezing damage. Other regions were moderate risk.