中国农业气象 ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (03): 448-456.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.03.020

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

山西近50年初霜冻的时空分布及其突变特征

李芬,张建新,闫永刚,贾利冬,王旭东,李秋平   

  1. 1山西省气象局,太原030002;2南京信息工程大学,南京210044
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-25 出版日期:2012-08-20 发布日期:2012-08-27
  • 作者简介:李芬(1964-),女,山西汾阳人,高级工程师,主要从事区域气候变化及生态与农业气象研究。Email:lifen1964@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2011M10)

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of First Frost and Its Abrupt Change in Shanxi Province Last 50 Years

LI Fen,ZHANG Jian xin,YAN Yong gang,JIA Li dong,WANG Xu dong,LI Qiu ping   

  1. 1Shanxi Meteorological Bureau,Taiyuan030002,China;2Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing210044
  • Received:2011-11-25 Online:2012-08-20 Published:2012-08-27

摘要: 基于山西62个测站1961-2010年的逐年初霜日及地面最低温度资料,应用EOF和M-K突变检测方法对山西初霜冻的时空分布及其突变特征进行分析,以期为提高对霜冻的预测、服务能力和有效利用农业气候资源提供参考。结果表明,(1)山西近50a平均初霜冻日在空间上大致呈“5节阶梯”型分布,9月中旬-11月上旬,自北向南相继出现初霜冻,且东部早于西部;(2)山西出现正常初霜冻的概率为62%~82%,从北向南呈“大—小—大”分布;偏早初霜冻出现概率为6%~26%,从北到南呈“小—大—小”分布,中西部是出现偏早初霜冻概率最大的地区;特早初霜冻出现概率为4%~22%,出现概率最大的地区在西部及中东部地区;(3)初霜冻、轻微初霜冻、中度初霜冻和重度初霜冻发生年份大都表现出一致的推后或提前,也存在纬向差异,但总体一致性是山西初霜冻变化的主导特征;(4)M-K突变检测表明,山西近50a平均初霜日在1989年产生明显突变;对全部62个站点的检测表明,59个站点都存在突变,且主要发生在20世纪80-90年代;仅西北部3个站点没有检测出突变;从其区域分布看,北部和南部突变偏早,中部偏晚。

关键词: 初霜冻日, 偏早初霜冻, 特早初霜冻, 中度初霜冻, 重度初霜冻

Abstract: Based on first frost date and daily minimum ground temperature data at 62 meteorological stations in Shanxi province from 1961 to 2010,authors analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution and abrupt change by using EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and M-K abrupt change method.The results showed that spatial distribution of first frost dates occurred from second ten days of September in north to first ten days of November in south with 5 steps.Probability of normal first frost in Shanxi province was 62% to 82%,and had a distribution trend of “large-small-large”from north to south Probability of earlier first frost in Shanxi province was 6% to 26%,and had a distribution trend of“small-large-small”from north to south.The earliest first frost occurred in west and middle-east of Shanxi province,with the probability of 4% to 22%.Occurrence times of first frost,mild first frost,moderate first frost and severe first frost showed same “more”or“less”in most years.It was found with M-K abrupt change test that first frost date of most stations had abrupt change,which concentrated in eighth and ninth decades in last century;north and south region were earlier than middle region.

Key words: First frost date, Earlier first frost, Earliest first frost, Moderate first frost, Severe first frost

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