关键词: 长期天气预报, 降水, “天气气候征兆预报法”

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data(1951 to 2010)including precipitation,maximum wind speed and direction of Beijing meteorological station,authors tested the method of“Prediction Method of Weather-Climate Sign”〖JP2〗proposed by reference \[3\].The method could predict precipitation before 100±5 days due to three factors“souther or southwester”,“wind force is grade 3 or better”,“there is no rain”and it was argued that the rate of accuracy of precipitation was above 93%.The results showed that under the factors in reference \[3\],the rate of accuracy of precipitation was 77.0% within 100±3 days and 84.7% within 100±5 days which is basically consistent with the conclusion of reference \[3\].Further evaluation showed that the rate of accuracy of precipitation was also about 77.0% within 3 days in any group without these factors after they were weakened.This means that there is no necessary connection between“rain after 100 days”and these three factors.The actual precipitation probability of 60 years was closed to the rate of accuracy of precipitation of“rain after 100 days”,it seemed that what was showed in reference\[3\]was the actual precipitation probability and there was no strong correlation with“Prediction Method of Weather-Climate Sign”.