关键词: 气象灾害, 风险评估, 油菜, 湖南

Abstract: With meteorology data of 96 stations during 1961-2010,authors adopted correlation analysis method to choose seven meteorological disasters which restrict the yield of oilseed rape in Hunan and determined the weight coefficients of these factors with experts experience.Integrated risk index was established to assess meteorological disaster risk of oilseed rape in Hunan based on GIS.The seven disasters were drought at seedbed stage,drought at seedling stage in field,frost at seedling stage overwinter, frost at flower budding stage,continuous rain with low temperature at blooming stage,and continuous rain at pod setting and harvesting stages.The results showed that northeast and southeast of Hunan were the main local areas at the highest risk,and southeast of Chenzhou and most area of Zhangjiajie were at micro risk.Central Hunan including Loudi,north and center of Shaoyang,Xiangtan and Changsha,and north of Hunan including Yueyang,Yiyang were at higher risk.Other areas were at intermediate risk or low risk.The decadal change of oilseed rape risk during different periods of 1961 to 1990,1971 to 2000,and 1981 to 2010 were also analyzed.The range of the highest risk and higher risk showed a little decrease and the range of the low risk and micro risk showed a little increase in the context of global warming.The research result could provide scientific evidence for production distribution of oilseed rape.

Key words: Meteorology disaster, Risk assessment, Oilseed rape, Hunan