中国农业气象 ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (01): 10-16.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.01.002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961-2010年新疆不同保证率极端最低气温变化分析

普宗朝,张山清,李景林,徐文修,王命全   

  1. 1新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,乌鲁木齐830002;2新疆农业气象台,乌鲁木齐830002;3新疆农业大学农学院,乌鲁木齐830052
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-02 出版日期:2014-02-20 发布日期:2015-02-10
  • 作者简介:普宗朝(1965-),河南沈丘人,高级工程师,主要从事气候变化与农业气象研究。 Email:puzongchao@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(31260312);新疆气象局科研项目(201127;201312)

Analysis of Different Guarantee Rate Extreme Minimum Temperature Variation in Xinjiang During 1961-2010

PU Zong chao, ZHANG Shan qing,LI Jing lin,XU Wen xiu,WANG Ming quan   

  1. 1Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Urumqi830002,China;2Xinjiang Agrometeorological Bureau, Urumqi830002;3College〖JP〗
    of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi830052
  • Received:2013-07-02 Online:2014-02-20 Published:2015-02-10

摘要: 利用新疆101个气象站1961-2010年逐年极端最低气温资料,采用均方差法计算各站多年平均极端最低气温以及80%、90%和95%保证率极端最低气温,使用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检测以及基于ArcGIS的空间插值技术,对近50a新疆不同保证率下极端最低气温时空变化规律及其对冬小麦和主要果树安全越冬的影响进行分析。结果表明:(1)新疆平均极端最低气温和不同保证率的极端最低气温的空间分布呈南疆高,北疆低;平原和盆地高,山区低的格局。(2)全疆平均80%、90%和95%保证率的极端最低气温分别较平均极端最低气温低-2.7℃、-4.2℃和-5.4℃,偏低幅度的空间分布呈东南向西北递增的特点。(3)近50a,新疆平均极端最低气温以0.74℃/10a的倾向率呈极显著上升趋势(P<0.01),并于1980年发生突变,上升倾向率和突变年前后上升幅度的空间分布总体呈北疆大,南疆小;平原大,山区小的特点。研究结果对科学制定越冬作物种植规划,选择适宜的耐寒作物品种,采取科学有效的农作物安全越冬管理技术具有重要意义。

关键词: 新疆, 极端最低气温, 保证率, 冬小麦, 果树, 冻害

Abstract: Based on the annually extreme minimum temperature data from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2010, the fundamental spatialtemporal change characteristics of mean extreme minimum temperature and different guarantee rate(80%, 90%, 95%)extreme minimum temperature were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, Mann Kendall test and three dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and inverse distance square weighting residual error revising based on GIS. The main results are as the follows,(1)mean extreme minimum temperature and different guarantee rate extreme minimum temperature were higher in southern than in northern, and higher in plain and valley than in mountain areas of Xinjiang.(2)On average of whole Xinjiang, the extreme minimum temperature of guarantee rate 80%, 90%, and 95% were lower than mean extreme minimum temperature -2.7℃,-4.2℃ and -5.4℃ respectively, and the difference was gradually increased from southeast to northwest in Xinjiang.(3)In the background of global warming, mean extreme minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend by the rate of 0.74℃/10y in recent 50 years, and had mutations in 1980. The increasing rate and change range before and after 1980 were larger in north than in south, and in plains than in mountains of Xinjiang. In addition, according to climate index of winter wheat and various fruit trees going through winter safely, the influence of different guarantee rate extreme minimum temperature spatial temporal variation to winter wheat and fruit trees going through winter safely were analyzed. The study results have important reference significance, to science formulates plans for the winter crops planting, choose appropriate cold resistant crop varieties, adopt scientific and effective safety overwintering crops management technology in Xinjiang.

Key words: Xinjiang, Extreme minimum temperature, Guarantee rate, Winter wheat, Fruit trees, Freezing injury