辽宁省凌河流域生长季参考作物腾发量变化及气候要素贡献分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用辽宁省凌河流域10个气象站1965-2006年的逐日气象资料，采用FAO推荐的P-M公式计算各站逐日参考作物腾发量（ET0），在分析生长季（4-9月）各气象要素及ET0变化趋势的基础上，用基于敏感系数的贡献值法探讨各气象要素变化对ET0变化的贡献。结果表明：近42a来，凌河流域生长季ET0以21.46mm·10a-1的速率极显著降低（P＜0.01），平均值为706.73mm，其中最大值发生在5月，最小值发生在9月；ET0高值区集中在朝阳和北票等地，低值区位于义县一带。研究区生长季太阳辐射以0.293MJ·m-2·d-1·10a-1的速率递减；除阜新外其余各站风速均呈极显著下降趋势（P＜0.01）；在全球气候变暖的背景下，过去42a凌河流域生长季平均气温以0.289℃·10a-1的速度上升，其中4月和9月变化显著（P＜0.05），7月相对稳定。研究区生长季相对湿度变化不大。敏感性分析结果表明，流域内生长季平均ET0对各气象要素变化的敏感性大小依次为太阳辐射＞相对湿度＞风速＞温度，但在研究时段内，显著变化的风速对ET0变化贡献最大，其次为太阳辐射，温度对ET0变化的贡献最小。太阳辐射和风速变化对ET0变化的贡献在流域西部较大，而在东部较小；温度变化对ET0变化的贡献总体上表现为由流域中部向东西两端递减；相对湿度变化对ET0变化的贡献在空间分布上较分散。

关键词: 敏感系数, 空间格局, 贡献值, 参考作物腾发量（蒸散量）

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological dataset during 1965 to 2006 from 10 meteorological stations in Linghe basin of Liaoning province，the reference evapotranspiration（ET0）was calculated using P-M equation recommended by FAO.And with the analysis of variation trend relating to meteorological elements and ET0 during growing season（from April to September），the contribution to ET0 change made by meteorological alteration was also discussed with a method based on sensitivity coefficient.The results showed that the average value of ET0 during growing season in Linghe basin was 706.73mm and it was significantly reducing at a speed of 21.46mm·10y-1in the past 42 years（P<0.01）.During the whole season，the ET0 in May accounted for the most while that in Sep.came the least.The high value of ET0 concentrated in Chaoyang and Yangshan and the low value was in Yixian.The average solar radiation of whole growing season in the study area was declining at a speed of 0.293MJ·m-2·d-1·10y-1.Except in Fuxin station，the wind speed was significantly decreasing（P<0.01）.Under the background of global warming，the average temperature of Linghe basin in growing season during the past 42 years was increasing at a speed of 0.289℃·10y-1 and the trend was obvious in April and September（P<0.05）while that was relative stable in July.The change of relative humidity during growing season in the study area was not serious.The sensitivity analysis results showed that the sensitivity order of average ET0 in Linghe basin to different meteorological elements in growing season was: solar radiation >relative humidity>wind speed>temperature.But as to contribution value，the significantly changed wind speed was the most important factor to ET0 variation，followed by solar radiation，and the temperature did the least to ET0 variation.Meanwhile，the contribution of solar radiation and wind speed change to ET0 variation in western basin was greater，and smaller in the east，while that of temperature showed a progressive decrease tendency from the middle to both sides on the whole.The contribution of relative humidity change to ET0 alteration was scattered on spatial distribution.

Key words: Sensitivity coefficient, Spatial distribution, Contribution, Reference evapotranspiration

许杏娟，陈涛涛，吴奇，王子凰，郑俊林，迟道才. 辽宁省凌河流域生长季参考作物腾发量变化及气候要素贡献分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(01): 33-42.

XU Xing juan，CHEN Tao tao，WU Qi，WANG Zi huang，ZHENG Jun lin，CHI Dao cai. Analysis of the Reference Evapotranspiration Change and Climate Factors Contribution During Growing Season in Linghe Basin of Liaoning Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(01): 33-42.

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