气候变化情景下黄淮海冬麦区降水量及其适宜度变化分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用双线性插值法将RegCM3模式模拟的A1B情景下该区域1951-2100年0.25°×0.25°的格点数据插值到各站点位置，然后利用黄淮海冬麦区1971-2000年83个站点逐日气象资料对其进行误差订正，再将情景数据分为1951-1980年、1981-2010年、2011-2040年、2041-2070年和2071-2100年共5个阶段，计算各阶段冬小麦主要生育期降水量及其适宜度，并分析相应的时空变化特点。结果表明：黄淮海冬麦区在暖湿化的气候情景下，冬小麦各主要生育期降水量和降水适宜度总体上呈现南方多北方少的分布特点，返青-拔节期降水量最少，抽穗-成熟期降水量最多，相应各主要生育期的降水适宜度表现为返青-拔节期和抽穗-成熟期较高、拔节-抽穗期较低的特点。分时段分析结果显示，随着时间推延，各主要生育期内降水适宜度与降水量基本呈正相位的变化关系，即降水量越大，适宜度也相应增大。返青-拔节期的降水量和降水适宜度均呈现北部增加、南部明显减少的趋势，拔节-抽穗期降水量和降水适宜度均呈减少-增加-减少-增加的波动变化趋势，抽穗-成熟期降水量和降水适宜度均呈先减少后相对稳定的变化趋势，全生育期内降水量和降水适宜度均呈先减少后增加的趋势。未来全球气候变暖情景下，黄淮海冬麦区北部可以考虑根据实际情况小幅扩大种植规模；南部可以考虑保持现有种植规模或小幅减小种植规模。

关键词: 黄淮海冬麦区, 冬小麦, RegCM3, 降水, 降水适宜度

Abstract: The daily 0.25 × 0.25 degree gridded meteorological data under A1B climate scenario (1951-2100) extracted from the regional climate model RegCM3 was interpolated to station location by bilinear interpolation, daily meteorological data of 83 stations from 1971 to 2000 in Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region was used to correct scenario data, which was divided into five periods (1951-1980, 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to calculate precipitation suitability for winter wheat in different growth periods and to analyze its spatial and temporal variations. The results showed that under warm and humid climate scenarios, the mean precipitation and precipitation suitability of main growth periods was better in the south than that of in the north. The precipitation was insufficient from turning green to jointing stage and ample from heading to maturity stage, the precipitation suitability was higher from turning green to jointing stage and from heading to maturity stage and lower from jointing to heading stage. Both precipitation and precipitation suitability fluctuated in positive phase with time, the precipitation suitability increased with the precipitation increasing. Both precipitation and precipitation suitability showed an increasing trend in the north while decreasing in the south from turning green to jointing stage, a fluctuating trend of decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing from jointing to heading stage, a relative steady trend after decreasing from heading to maturity stage. Winter wheat planting area should be expanded slightly in the northern Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region and keep the current state or be reduced slightly in the southern Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region in the future considering the impact of global warming.

Key words: Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region, Winter wheat, RegCM3, Precipitation, Precipitation suitability

申双和，褚荣浩，吕厚荃，李萌，邵立瑛. 气候变化情景下黄淮海冬麦区降水量及其适宜度变化分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(04): 454-464.

SHEN Shuang-he, CHU Rong-hao, LV Hou-quan, LI Meng, SHAO Li-ying. Precipitation Variation and Its Suitability for Winter Wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Region Under Climate Change[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 454-464.

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