基于WOFOST模型的内蒙古河套灌区玉米低温冷害评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.03.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用内蒙古河套灌区玉米生长发育观测资料，结合已有研究成果，对WOFOST模型进行本地化及适应性检验；利用研究区内12站1961-2010年逐日气象资料，分区作物参数，模拟玉米生长发育过程，确定抽雄期延迟日数、灌浆指数为玉米低温冷害指标，贮存器官干物重波动百分率为减产情况评价指标，对历史低温冷害年及减产情况进行分析。结果表明：本地化的WOFOST模型在内蒙古河套灌区的应用效果较好，可以用于该地区玉米生长的模拟；WOFOST模型能够较好地模拟玉米发育程度对低温冷害的响应，以抽雄期延迟日数和灌浆指数为冷害指标评估的历史冷害发生状况基本符合实际情况，1961-2010年研究区12个站点共发生不同程度低温冷害260站次，其中重度冷害占37.3%，轻中度占62.7%，在发生严重冷害的年份中，84.7%的年份表现为减产的趋势。本文结论与传统方法相比，玉米低温冷害评价的生物学意义更加明确，本地化的WOFOST模型可以在河套灌区玉米低温冷害监测、评估等业务中应用。

关键词: 玉米, 低温冷害指标, WOFOST模型, 影响及等级评价, 生育期延迟日数, 灌浆指数

Abstract:

Based on observed data during maize growth and development, combining with the existing research results, the localization and adaptability test of WOFOST model was carried out. Based on daily meteorological data from 12 meteorological stations in research region from 1961 to 2010, the crop parameters were partitioned. By using WOFOST model, the maize development and growth processes were simulated. The tasseling stage delayed days, filling index were determined as maize chilling injury index, and storage organ dry weight fluctuation percentage production as evaluation index, the history and production of chilling injury were analyzed. The results showed that the localized WOFOST model was an effective method in Hetao irrigation regionin Inner Mongolia, which could be used in maize simulation. WOFOST model simulated well maize development degree and response of development degree to chilling injury. According to the WOFOST maize chilling injury index, there occurred 260 stations/times different degree maize chilling injury in the region in last 50 years, the severe chilling injury accounted for 37.3%, the light and medium chilling injury accounted for 62.7%, and 84.7% of severe chilling injury years showed yield reduction. Compared with the traditional method, the new method showed more clearly biological significance, so these indicators could be applied in the business of maize chilling injury monitoring and evaluation in Hetao irrigation region in Inner Mongolia.

Key words: Maize, Chilling injury index, WOFOST model, Effect and grade evaluation, Delayed growth days, Filling index

李秀芬，马树庆，赵慧颖，王萍，姜丽霞，朱海霞. 基于WOFOST模型的内蒙古河套灌区玉米低温冷害评价[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(03): 352-360.

LI Xiu-fen, MA Shu-qing, ZHAO Hui-ying, WANG Ping, JIANG Li-xia, ZHU Hai-xia. Evaluation on Maize Chilling Injury Based on WOFOST Model in Hetao Irrigation Region in Inner Mongolia[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(03): 352-360.

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