库尔勒香梨树冬季冻害指数改进与预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.07.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用库尔勒气象站1981-2017年逐日气象观测资料和大气环流资料，采用主成分分析方法，将4个对梨树冬季冻害影响显著的气象因子，即冬季极端最低气温、日平均气温≤-10℃负积温、最低气温≤-15℃日数以及积雪深度≥5cm日数，合成综合冻害指数，并以该指数为预测对象，通过Pearson相关分析和逐步回归方法，筛选出与综合冻害指数显著相关的大气环流因子作为自变量，建立综合冻害指数预测模型，最后对模型效果进行检验。结果表明，综合冻害指数能够较好地反映历年库尔勒香梨树冻害情况，指数值越小，冻害程度越严重。结合历史灾情记录，定义综合冻害指数＞-0.42为无冻害，-0.91～-0.42为轻度冻害，-1.8～-0.92为中度冻害，综合冻害指数＜-1.8为重度冻害。对建立的综合冻害指数预测模型进行检验，1981-2015年回代拟合值与采用主成分分析方法计算得出的实际值相比较，正负同号率为85.7%；回代拟合值与历史灾情相比较，无冻害等级正确率为80%，重度冻害正确率为75%，中度冻害误差1个等级，轻度冻害拟合较差；2016、2017年延伸预报完全正确。

关键词: 库尔勒香梨, 主成分分析, 冻害指数, 环流特征量

Abstract: Using the daily weather observation data and atmospheric circulation data from Korla weather station from 1981 to 2017, four meteorological factors（including extreme minimum temperature in winter, negative accumulated temperature of daily average temperature ≤-10℃, the minimum temperature days ≤-15℃, number of days with snow depth ≥5cm）with significant effects on winter freezing injury of pear trees were synthesized into a comprehensive freezing injury index by Principal Component Analysis（PCA）. Then, using the index as the prediction object, the Pearson correlation analysis and stepwise regression method were used to select the atmospheric circulation factor which was significantly correlated with the comprehensive frost damage index as the independent variable, and the comprehensive frost damage index prediction model was established. Finally, the model effect was tested by using data from 1981 to 2017. The results showed that the comprehensive freezing injury index reflected the freezing injury of Korla pear trees over these years, and the smaller the index value, the more serious the degree of freezing injury. Combined with historical disaster records, definition of comprehensive freezing injury index >-0.42 was no freezing injury, -0.91 to -0.42 was slight freezing injury, -1.8 to -0.92 was moderate freezing injury, and comprehensive freezing injury index

Key words: Korla fragrant pear, Principal component analysis, Freezing injury index, Circulation characteristic quantity

张仕明，顾军明. 库尔勒香梨树冬季冻害指数改进与预测[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(07): 467-473.

ZHANG Shi-ming，GU Jun-ming. Improvement and Prediction of Cold Freezing Injury Index of Korla Fragrant Pear Trees in Winter[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(07): 467-473.

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