中国农业气象 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (02): 144-153.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2023.02.006

• 农业生物气象栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化条件下马尾松人工林潜在地理分布的诊断

凌怡晨,赵晶,王鹤松,刘阳   

  1. 1. 北京林业大学园林学院,北京 100083;2. 北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-10 出版日期:2023-02-20 发布日期:2023-01-16
  • 通讯作者: 赵晶,副教授,主要研究方向为风景园林生态学、风景园林历史与理论。 E-mail:zhaojing850120@163.com
  • 作者简介:凌怡晨,E-mail: 812645934@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2020YFA0608103);国家自然科学基金项目(52208041);国家重点实验室开放课题(20220110)

Diagnosis of Potential Geographical Distribution of Pinus massoniana under Climate Change

LING Yi-chen, ZHAO Jing, WANG He-song, LIU Yang   

  1. 1. College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; 2. College of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083
  • Received:2022-03-10 Online:2023-02-20 Published:2023-01-16

摘要: 基于186条中国马尾松分布记录和1931−1960年、1961−1990年、1991−2017年3个时期19个气候因子数据,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),研究过去近90a影响中国马尾松适生区分布的气候因子、适宜马尾松生长及分布的气候条件,以及马尾松在不同时期适生区分布变化情况,以期为中国南方人工林应对气候变化提供决策支持。结果表明:(1)影响马尾松适生区分布的主要气候因子为最冷季度降水量、最干燥月降水量、气温年较差、温度季节变化标准差、年降水量和最干季度平均温度。(2)1931−1960年适宜地区总面积和较适宜地区面积最大,分别约为184.88万km2和87.45万km2,1961−1990年完全适宜地区面积最大,约为52.71万km2,1991−2017年北侧边界较1931−1960年向北偏移约1°,南侧海南岛适宜区域减至0,雷州半岛分布边界较1931−1960年向北偏移约2°。(3)随着近90a来气候变化,马尾松潜在适生区整体向东向北偏移,原有西侧和南侧零散的适生区域减退,适宜地区总面积呈现先减少后增加的趋势,现状适生区主要分布在秦岭−淮河一线以南,雷州半岛以北,横断山脉以东的区域。现阶段马尾松完全适宜地区集中分布在广西省、广东省、福建省、贵州省中部和南部、重庆市西部和四川省东部,这些地区最适宜作为马尾松人工林的种植区域。

关键词: 气候变化, 马尾松人工林, MaxEnt模型, 潜在适生区, 分布格局

Abstract: Based on 186 distribution records of Pinus massoniana in China and 19 climate factors in the three periods from 1931 to 1960, 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2017, the MaxEnt model was used to study the climate factors that affected the distribution of Pinus massoniana in China in the past 90 years, the climatic conditions suitable for the growth and distribution of Pinus massoniana, and the distribution of Pinus massoniana in different periods, in order to provide decision-making support for the artificial forests in southern China to cope with climate change. The results showed that: (1) the main climate factors affecting the distribution of Pinus massoniana were precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation of driest month, temperature annual range, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation and mean temperature of driest quarter. (2) The total area of suitable area and the area of slight suitable area in the period from 1931 to 1960 were the largest, about 1848800km2 and 874500km2, respectively, the area of optimum area was the largest in the period from 1961 to 1990, about 527100km2, and in the period from 1991 to 2017, the northern boundary was shifted about 1° to the north compared with the period from 1931 to 1960, the suitable area of Hainan island on the south side was reduced to none, and the distribution boundary of the Leizhou peninsula was about 2° northward than that of the period from 1931 to 1960. (3) With the climate change in the past 90 years, the overall potential suitable area of Pinus massoniana has shifted to the east to the north, the scattered suitable areas on the original west and south sides have decreased, and the total area of suitable areas has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and the current suitable areas are mainly distributed in the south of the Qinling-Huaihe line, north of the Leizhou peninsula, and east of the Hengduan mountains. At present, the optimum areas of Pinus massoniana are concentrated in Guangxi province, Guangdong province, Fujian province, central and southern Guizhou province, western Chongqing municipality and eastern Sichuan province, which are the most suitable planting areas for Pinus massoniana plantations.

Key words: Climate change, Pinus massoniana plantation, MaxEnt model, Potential distribution, Distribution pattern