关键词: PRECIS, SRES A1B, 内蒙古, 气温, 降水量

Abstract: The responses of temperature and precipitation during 1961-1990(baseline) and 2011-2100 under SRES A1B scenario in Inner Mongolia was analyzed by using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies), a regional climate model system driven by HadCM3Q0. The results showed that PRECIS might reproduce spatial distribution and frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia during 1961-1990. Under A1B Scenario, compared with baseline, the high value centers of annual mean temperature would be near Ejina county and Hulunbuir, increasing by 2~5.6℃ in next 90 years, and the low value center would be located at central south of Inner Mongolia, increasing by 1.4~4.8℃. The 30 years average value of annual mean temperature during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 would increase by 1.7℃, 3.5℃ and 5.1℃,respectively. And the warming tendency of temperature in each period would perform remarkably. Meanwhile, frequency distribution of daily mean temperature indicated that potential possibility of high temperature event might rise. In terms of annual precipitation, regions only in the western desert and parts of Hulunbuir would perform decreased tendency, others would increase by 10%~20% in next 90 years, and the high value centers would be near the south of Chifeng and Tongliao. As far as annual variation be concerned, the 30 years average value of annual precipitation during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 would increase by 10.7%, 17.1% and 14.1%, respectively. Compared with baseline, from frequency distribution of future daily precipitation, it showed the occurrence of heavy precipitation events might increase.

Key words: PRECIS, SRESA1B, Inner Mongolia, Temperature, Precipitation