中国农业气象 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 1020-1030.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.12.004

• 农业生物气象栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

华南主产区双季水稻物候变化及其与气候条件的关系

李伟光,侯美亭,张京红,车秀芬,陈小敏   

  1. 1.海南省气候中心,海口 570203;2.海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口 570203;3.中国气象局干部学院,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-27 出版日期:2021-12-20 发布日期:2021-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 李伟光,高级工程师,研究方向为气候变化及气象灾害对农业的影响,E-mail:163great@163.com E-mail:163great@163.com
  • 作者简介:李伟光,高级工程师,研究方向为气候变化及气象灾害对农业的影响,E-mail:163great@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J070);气象软科学项目(2021ZZXM16)

Spatiotemporal Changes of Double Cropping Rice Phenology in South China and Relationship with Climatic Conditions

LI Wei-guang, HOU Mei-ting, ZHANG Jing-hong, CHE Xiu-fen, CHEN Xiao-min   

  1. 1.Climate Center of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction in South China Sea, Haikou 570203; 3. Cadre College of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2021-04-27 Online:2021-12-20 Published:2021-11-28

摘要: 为探索华南水稻生长发育对气候变化的敏感性,估算气候变化、品种更替对水稻物候期变化的贡献,选取1981-2013年华南双季水稻种植区物候和气象观测数据,采用Theil-Sen估计线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势显著性检验等方法,分析双季水稻物候期的时空变化趋势。结果表明:与其它地区不同,华南早稻播种期提前、晚稻成熟期推迟趋势较小;早稻、晚稻营养生长期存在缩短趋势,而生殖生长期存在延长趋势。早稻、晚稻的营养生长期、生殖生长期均随着降水量和日照时数的增加而延长,随着气温上升而缩短;平均气温每上升1℃,生长期长度缩短0.5~4.7d。气候变化与品种对水稻物候期影响的贡献率分析表明,品种更替对早稻和晚稻生长期长度的影响大于气候变化。研究期内品种更替中,早稻倾向于选择营养生长期和生殖生长期均长的品种;晚稻倾向于选择营养生长期短、生殖生长期长的品种。

关键词: 水稻, 物候, 发育期, 气候变化, 贡献率

Abstract: In order to explore the sensitivity of rice growth and development to climate change, and to estimate the contribution of climate change and varieties change to the change of rice phenology in South China, the phenological and meteorological observation data of double cropping rice planting in South China from 1981 to 2013 were selected for analysis. Theil-Sen estimation linear tendency rate and Mann-Kendall trend significance test were used to analyze the change trend and spatial distribution characteristics of double cropping rice phenology. Different from other regions, the sowing date of early rice in South China is ahead of schedule and the mature period of late rice is delayed slightly. The vegetative growth period of early and late rice was shortened, while the reproductive growth period was prolonged. The length of vegetative and reproductive growth periods of early rice and late rice increased with the increase of precipitation and sunshine hours, and decreased with the increase of temperature; the length of growth period was shortened by 0.5−4.7 days when the average temperature increased by 1℃. The analysis of the contribution rate of climate change and varieties to the impact of rice phenology showed that the influence of varieties change on the long-term length of early and late rice was greater than that of climate change. In the past 30 years, early rice tended to choose the varieties with long vegetative and reproductive growth period, late rice tends to choose varieties with short vegetative growth period and long reproductive growth period.

Key words: Rice, Phenology, Growth phases, Climate change, Contribution