中国农业气象

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区域气候变化对华东地区水稻产量的影响

孙卫国;程炳岩;杨沈斌;孙文婷;   

  1. 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室;南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;重庆市气候中心;
  • 出版日期:2011-04-10 发布日期:2011-04-10
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(40901238);; 南京信息工程大学科研基金(9922);; 江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目

Impact of the Regional Climate Variations on Rice Yield in East China

SUN Wei-guo1,2,CHENG Bing-yan3,YANG Shen-bin1,2,SUN Wen-ting2(1.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;2.College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;3.Climate Center of Chongqing City,Chongqing 401147)   

  • Online:2011-04-10 Published:2011-04-10

摘要: 为揭示区域气候变化对华东地区水稻产量的影响以及水稻产量波动的原因,采用功率谱和交叉小波变换方法分析了近59a来华东地区水稻产量、平均气温和降水量的时频变化特征以及水稻产量与区域气候变化之间的关系。结果表明:华东地区水稻产量和区域气候均存在年际和年代际尺度变化周期。气象产量与生育期平均气温以正相关关系为主,局部时域中也存在不同频率尺度的负相关;主要表现为2~3a、4~6a、10~14a和16a尺度的强凝聚性耦合振荡,两者年代际尺度显著相关具有阶段性而年际尺度显著相关具有时域局部化特征。气象产量与生育期降水量之间存在准2a、3~4a、8~10a和16a左右的显著共振周期,1985年以前的降水偏多期两者以负相关为主而1985年以后的降水偏少期则多为正相关关系,负相关耦合振荡的凝聚性明显大于正相关耦合振荡。华东地区水稻产量波动与区域气候变化关系密切,气候变暖对水稻产量的影响远大于降水量减少所产生的影响。气候异常导致气候灾害频发是华东地区水稻产量波动的主要原因。

关键词: 华东地区, 水稻产量, 气候变化, 小波变换

Abstract: For revealing the impact of regional climate variations on rice yield in East China,the time-frequency characteristics of the rice yield,average temperature and precipitation during rice growth period and the multi-time scale correlations between meteorological yield and regional climate variations in East China were analyzed by power spectrum and cross wavelet transform method.The results showed that both of rice yield fluctuate and regional climate variations in East China had the interannual and interdecadal scale periods.Positive correlation between meteorological yield and average temperature during rice growth period appeared in most of time-frequency space,higher coherence of the correlation oscillations mainly showed at 2~3 years,4~6 years,10~14 years and 16 years scale.The significant of interdecadal correlation was exhibited at a stage and the interannual correlations were localized in time space.The significant periods of the correlation oscillations between meteorological yield and precipitation during rice growth period were quasi-biannual,3~4 years,8~10 years and 16 years,the coherence of negative correlation oscillations before 1985 as a result of more precipitation was obviously higher than the positive correlation oscillations after 1985 due to less precipitation.It was found that the rice yield fluctuate had a closely relation with regional climate variations in East China,the influence of warming of regional climate on rice yield was greatly bigger than the reducing of precipitation.The main causes of rice yield fluctuate were the increasing of climatic disasters due to unusual climate changes in East China.

Key words: East China, East China, Rice yield, Climate variation, Wavelet transform