钟模型法建立甘蔗发育期模拟模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.03.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于作物发育动态理论模型原理及钟模型方法构建甘蔗发育期模拟模型（SDSM，sugarcane development simulation model），模拟新植蔗和多年宿根蔗不同发育期。利用广西甘蔗主产区（宜州、沙塘、来宾、扶绥、贵港）的甘蔗发育期多年观测资料及同期气象数据，结合甘蔗各发育阶段的三基点温度指标，通过试错法确定甘蔗发育期模拟模型（SDSM）参数，模拟新植蔗、宿根蔗各发育期（播种-出苗、出苗-分蘖、分蘖-茎伸长、茎伸长-工艺成熟)。通过模拟值与实测值对比分析，对模拟效果进行评价。结果表明：模型具有较强的机理性，模型中基本发育函数部分反映了品种的基因特性，模型能够有效模拟甘蔗的发育期。新植蔗各发育阶段NRMSE在5.2%～26.31%，播种-出苗阶段模拟值与实测值相差8.1d，出苗-分蘖相差7.4d，分蘖-茎伸长相差4.6d，茎伸长-工艺成熟相差7.4d；宿根蔗各发育阶段NRMSE在6.52%～21.66%，上一年工艺成熟-发株阶段模拟值与实测值相差8.8d，发株-分蘖相差8.7d，分蘖-茎伸长相差7.5d，茎伸长-工艺成熟相差9.9d。说明模拟值与实测值具有较好的一致性与相关性，模型可以实现对甘蔗发育期的预测。

关键词: 新植蔗, 宿根蔗, 发育阶段, 温度效应, 模拟模型

Abstract:

Based on the principle of theoretical model of crop development dynamics and clock model method, a sugarcane development simulation model (SDSM) was constructed to simulate the different development stages of new planting and perennial sugarcane. The data of sugarcane development stages from five major production sites (Yizhou, Shatang, Laibin, Fusui, Guigang) with three verities (Taitang 16, Taitang 22 and Guitang 25) and related meteorological data from 2003 to 2012 provided by Guangxi Meteorological Information Center were used. The whole growing period was divided as four development stages: sowing to emergence, emergence to tillering, tillering to stem elongation, and stem elongation to technical maturity. The parameters of SDSM model were determined by trial and error method. The simulation results of sugarcane development simulation model were evaluated by comparing the simulated and measured values. For new planting sugarcane, the NRMSE of each development stage was 5.2%-26.3%, the RMSE of simulated result and measured value were 8.1 days in the stage of seeding to emergence, 7.4 days in emergence to tillering, 4.6 days in tillering to stem elongation, and 7.4 days in stem elongation to technical maturity. For perennial sugarcane, the NRMSE of each developmental stage was 6.5%-21.7%, the RMSE of simulated result and measured value were 8.8 days in the stage of technical maturity to regrowth, 8.7 days in regrowth to tillering, 7.6 days in tillering to stem elongation, 9.9 days in stem elongation to technical maturity. It showed good consistency and correlation between the simulated and measured values. The model could effectively simulate the development period of sugarcane.

Key words: New planting sugarcane, Perennial sugarcane, Development stage, Temperature effect, Simulation model

陈潇，冯利平，彭明喜，陈燕丽. 钟模型法建立甘蔗发育期模拟模型[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(03): 186-194.

CHEN Xiao, FENG Li-ping, PENG Ming-xi, CHEN Yan-li. Establishment of Sugarcane Development Simulation Model Based on Clock Model Method[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(03): 186-194.

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