关键词: 马铃薯, 分区指标, 风险评估, 地理信息系统

Abstract: The relative meteorological yield of potato was calculated by using line moving average method based on potato yield data from 1978 to 2007 in Ningxia,and then the climatic division indices were determined by using integral regression analysis method.The distribution of climatic resources was analyzed by small grids method based on ArcGIS,and then the climatic division for potato was conducted under the condition of irrigation and non-irrigation.The result showed that suitable area mainly was in Southern Ningxia,sub-suitable area and the planting area mainly was in Central Ningxia,unsuitable area was in Northern Ningxia under non-irrigation.The suitable area was greatly extended in Northern Ningxia with irrigation.The risk assessment,used comprehensive risk index combining the yield reduction,variation coefficient,and annual reduction rate less than-10% in the poor harvest year,showed that the area with low risk mainly was in Southern Ningxia,the area with moderate risk included Yanchi,Zhongning,Zhongwei,and the area with high risk mainly included the most parts of Northern Ningxia and Haiyuan,Tongxin in Central Ningxia.

Key words: Potato, Potato, Division index, Risk evaluation, Geography information system(GIS)