• 论文 •

### 北方农牧交错带参考作物蒸散量时空变化与成因分析

1. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院，西安 710062
• 收稿日期:2015-08-07 出版日期:2016-04-20 发布日期:2016-04-18
• 作者简介:李英杰（1990-），硕士，主要从事全球变化与区域灾害防治研究。E-mail：lyj@ snnu.edu.cn
• 基金资助:

教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目（15JJD790022）“西北重大灾害时空统计规律与防灾对策研究”；国家社会科学基金重点项目（14AZD094）“西部重大灾害时空规律的统计研究”；国家社会科学基金重点项目（14XKS019）“中国丝绸之路经济带生态文明建设评价与路径研究”

### Temporal and Spatial Change and Causes Analysis of the Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Farming-Pastroral Ecotone of Northern China

LI Ying-jie, YAN Jun-ping, WANG Peng-tao

1. College of Tourism and Environmental，Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062，China
• Received:2015-08-07 Online:2016-04-20 Published:2016-04-18

Abstract:

Based on the FAO Penman-Monteith equation and the meteorological dataset in farming-pastroral ecotone of northern China during 1961 to 2013，ET0 and its sensitivity coefficients to meteorological factors were studied by using trend analysis and spatial interpolation methods．The results showed that the mean annual ET0 was 839-1097mm and decreased slightly at the rate of 0.21mmy-1 during the study period. 61% meteorological stations in eastern Qinhai, mid-Gansu and the northern Shaanxi plateau showed an increasing trend of 0.85mm·y-1（P＜0.05），while in Horqin sandy land and the western Liaoning the ET0 declined significantly. The meteorological factors’ contribution to ET0 was influenced by two aspects: the sensitivity coefficient and relative change rate of the meteorological factors. The sensitivity analysis showed the relative humidity was the most sensitive factor among the four main meteorological factors, followed by the wind speed, sunshine hours, mean temperature. But the wind speed decreased dramatically at the rate of 0.0154m-s-1y-1（P＜0.001）in recent 53 years, and the comprehensive result was that wind speed had the largest contribution to ET0, followed by relative humidity, which illustrating that the declination of ET0 was due to the deceleration of wind speed.