中国农业气象

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基于降水集中度方法的安徽省主汛期降水时空特征分析

王胜;石磊;谢五三;程智;戴娟;   

  1. 安徽省气候中心;安徽省气象局;
  • 出版日期:2010-08-10 发布日期:2010-08-10
  • 基金资助:
    淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目(HRM200805)

Spatial-temporal Distribution of Precipitation in Anhui Province during Main Flood Season Based on Precipitation Concentration Degree

WANG Sheng1,SHI Lei2,XIE Wu-san1,CHENG Zhi1,DAI Juan1(1.Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031,China;2.Anhui Meteorological Bureau,Hefei 230061)   

  • Online:2010-08-10 Published:2010-08-10

摘要: 利用安徽省1961-2009年6-8月降水资料,运用降水集中度和集中期分别讨论了主汛期降水时空分布特征和变化规律,并对多雨年和少雨年的集中度进行了比较。结果表明:降水集中度(PCD)和集中期(PCP)能够定量地表征降水量在时空场上的非均一性。安徽省主汛期降水集中度和集中期总体呈由南向北增大的空间分布;全省平均PCD值和PCP值的年际和年代际变化均较明显。PCD的EOF展开前三个特征向量累积方差贡献率达57%。第一特征向量表现为全省一致性,而第二特征向量表征为南北反相,第三特征向量表征为南北和中间反相。合成分析表明,多雨年的PCD值比少雨年大,而多雨年PCP值比少雨年小。总体来看,通过PCD和PCP提取最大降水重心及对应时段,为分析极端降水事件形成机制提供依据。

关键词: 降水集中度, 时空分布, 主汛期, 安徽省

Abstract: Based on the precipitation data from June to August of Anhui province during 1961-2009,the spatial-temporal distribution and variation of precipitation were analyzed by using the Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period(PCP) in main flood season,and the PCD were compared between more precipitation year and less precipitation year.The results showed that the PCD and PCP could quantitatively represent the non-uniformity properties of the precipitation spatial-temporal distribution.The spatial distribution increasing trend of PCD and PCP were obvious from south to north over Anhui province during main flood season;the inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of PCD and PCP were obvious.EOF analysis showed that the ratio of the front three eigenvectors with total square error was 57%.The first eigenvector represented the conformity PCD variation over Anhui province,the second eigenvector represented the reverse PCD variation between the south and north,and the third eigenvector showed that the reverse PCD variation between south-north and the central region.The synthetic analysis showed that the PCD in more precipitation years was greater than that in less precipitation years,and the PCP was smaller than in the less precipitation years.The gravity of precipitation and its corresponding periods could be extracted by using the PCD and PCP method,which could provided the basis for the formation mechanism of extreme precipitation events.

Key words: Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD), Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD), Spatial-temporal distribution, Main flood season, Anhui province