关键词: 农业气象长期预报, 预报因子, 独立性, 协击

Abstract: The independence of prediction factors is subjected to be ignored when the prediction factors are selected using a traditional long-term agrometeorological prediction method,thus reducing actual prediction effect.The purpose of this paper is to develop a Litchi cold damage prediction model for Guangzhou region using a different method named Xieji.Firstly,based on analyzing correlations between hazard factors and prophase atmospheric circulation factors for a period of 1962-2005,preliminary predictors were selected,then independence of the selected factors were tested by Xieji method,and finally prediction equations using prediction factors with a good independence were established.The model was tested using historical data,and accuracy of model simulation was above 86.4%.The model was then applied to Guangzhou for 2007-2008 to predict Litchi chilling damage.The results of this application were close to real values,and it indicates that this method was valid for a long-term agrometeorological prediction.

Key words: Long-term agrometeorological forecast, Long-term agrometeorological forecast, Predictor, Independence, Xieji