中国农业气象 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (8): 849-859.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2024.08.004

• 农业生态环境栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于PSO-RF模型的汉江流域参考作物蒸散量模拟研究

葛杰,曹绮欣,张晓鹏,雷龙,陈至立,冯家豪   

  1. 中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安 710065;河北天和咨询有限公司,石家庄 050000
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-01 出版日期:2024-08-20 发布日期:2024-08-09
  • 作者简介:葛杰,主要研究方向为水文水资源,E-mail:gejie@nwh.cn
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省科技统筹创新计划项目(2016KTZDNY−01−01)

Simulation of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Based on PSO-RF in the Hanjiang Basin

GE Jie, CAO Qi-xin, ZHANG Xiao-peng, LEI Long, CHEN Zhi-li, FENG Jia-hao   

  1. Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Xi’an 710065, China; Hebei Tianhe Consulting Co., Ltd, Shijiazhuang 050000

  • Received:2023-11-01 Online:2024-08-20 Published:2024-08-09

摘要: 选取1960−2017年汉江流域及附近24个气象站的逐日气象数据,构建16种基于粒子群算法优化随机森林(PSO-RF)的日尺度ET0计算模型,并与Hargreaves-SamaniMakkinkIrmark-Allen3种模型进行比较,评价PSO-RF模型在汉江流域的适用性及可移植性。结果表明:(1PSO-RF模型能很好地识别各输入参数与日尺度ET0的非线性关系;仅采用最高气温(Tmax)、最低气温(Tmin)和地球外辐射(Ra)建立的PSO-RF2模型具有足够精度,平均MAE0.402mm·d1,RMSE0.575mm·d1,R20.863;随输入气象要素数量增加,模型计算精度不断升高,平均MAE减小了37.9%,RMSE减小了36.3%,R2升高了6.78%。(2PSO-RF模型的计算精度优于相同输入参数的Hargreaves-SamaniMakkinkIrmark-Allen模型,平均MAE减小了43.6%、RMSE减小了34.5%,R2升高了4.12%。(3PSO-RF模型在汉江流域具有较强的泛化能力和可移植性,分区建立的PSO-RF模型相互移植时,平均MAE0.159mm·d1,RMSE0.245mm·d1,R20.974。因此缺乏气象数据时,基于PSO-RF建立的日尺度ET0计算模型可作为汉江流域日尺度ET0计算的推荐模型。

关键词:

Abstract: Sixteen daily scale ET0 calculation models were developed using the particle swarm optimization algorithm and random forest (PSO-RF) based on daily meteorological data collected from 24 meteorological stations in the Hanjiang dasin and it’s vicinity from 1960 to 2017, and were compared with Hargreaves-Samani, Irmark-Allen and Makkink, which applicability and portability were evaluated. The results showed that: 1the non-linear relation between daily ET0 and each input parameter can be well displayed by PSO-RF model. The PSO-RF2 established by TmaxTmin and Ra had sufficient accuracy (MAE=0.402 mm·d1, RMSE=0.575mm·d1, R2=0.863). With the increase of meteorological elements, the computational accuracy of PSO-RF model was improved(MAE decreased by 37.9%, RMSE decreased by 36.3%, R2 increased by 6.78%.2When the input factors and number of models are the same, the PSO-RF model had higher simulation accuracy than Hargreaves-Samani, Irmark-Allen, and Makkink models(MAE decreased by 43.6%, RMSE decreased by 34.5%, R2 increased by 4.12%).3The PSO-RF model had strong generalization ability and portability in the Hanjiang basin. High accuracy was shown in mutual portability of PSO-RF models established in different zone (MAE= 0.159mm·d1, RMSE=0.245mm·d1, R2=0.974). Therefore, the model based on PSO-RF can be used as a recommended model for the calculation of daily ET0 in Hanjiang basin in the absence of meteorological data.

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