关键词: 中央一号文件, 气候变化对农业影响, 农业气象灾害预测, 农业气候区划, 气候变化适应

Abstract:

In response to the challenges posed by climate change, the No.1 Central Document for the period 2022–2026 has on four occasions outlined the requirements for meteorological services in agriculture with respect to medium– to long–term climate change impacts. The requirements include strengthening research on the impact of climate change on agriculture, initiating a new round of surveys and zoning of agricultural climate resources, enhancing short–term early warning and medium– to long–term trend assessment of meteorological disasters, and conducting surveys and regionalization of agricultural climate resources. To strengthen the technological support for climate services in agriculture, this study systematically analyzed the practical context, scientific connotations and major technological challenges associated with the No.1 Central Document from 2022 to 2026. The aim was to provide scientific and technical references for implementation of the document's directive on climate services for agriculture. The results showed that the meteorological service content in the No.1 Central Document from 2022 to 2026 reinforced the demands for climate services in agriculture, forming three core tasks: strengthening research on medium– to long–term climate change impacts on agriculture, improving medium– to long–term trend assessments of meteorological disasters, and conducting surveys and regionalization of agricultural climate resources. Together, these tasks established a scientific collaboration chain of climate change impact and adaptation, framed as "risk perception–prevention and control decision–making–adaptation layout". However, there were currently three major bottlenecks in terms of technological support for achieving this task: first, the scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on agriculture was still insufficient in terms of attribution, extreme event impact assessment, and full–chain effects. Second, medium– to long–term agricultural meteorological disaster prediction techniques require breakthroughs in prediction accuracy, mechanism constraints and indicator applicability. Third, adaptation of crop layouts to climate change lacks the dynamic, precise and multidimensional support of agricultural climate zoning. In the future, there is an urgent need to advance scientific and technological research focused on these bottlenecks to effectively transform climate information into actionable decision–making support for agriculture, so as to genuinely serve the national strategies for food security and sustainable agricultural development. 

Key words: No.1 Central Document, Climate change impacts on agriculture, Prediction of agricultural meteorological disasters, Agricultural climate zoning, Climate change adaptation