关键词: 水贫困, 粮食脆弱性, 耦合协调, 驱动因素, 黄河“几”字弯

Abstract:

This study constructed evaluation index systems for agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability based on annual natural, social and economic data from 20 prefecture−level cities in the Yellow river Ω−shaped bend from 2010 to 2023. The entropy method, the coupling coordination degree model, and the Geodetector were employed to systematically analyze the spatio−temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the coupling coordination degree between agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability, to provide scientific support for the high−quality development of agriculture in the Yellow river basin. The results showed that, (1) from 2010 to 2023 in the Yellow river Ω−shaped bend, the agricultural water poverty index exhibited a significant upward trend, increasing from 0.25 to 0.32 (P<0.05), indicating a shift from moderate to low poverty levels. The food production vulnerability index showed a significant downward trend, decreasing from 0.55 to 0.41 (P<0.05), indicating a shift from relatively high to moderate vulnerability levels. (2) From 2010 to 2023, the annual average coupling coordination degree between agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability in the Yellow river Ω−shaped bend was 0.59, indicating a moderate level overall. However, significant spatial heterogeneity was observed, with a pattern characterized by “higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest”. The southeastern erosion zone in the Yellow river Ω−shaped bend recorded the highest and most stable coordination degree (0.61); the northwestern desert zone fell in the middle (0.58). The northern Hetao plain zone exhibited pronounced fluctuations with notable internal disparities, ranging from 0.53 to 0.61. (3) The regional differences in the coupling coordination degree between agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability in the Yellow river Ω−shaped bend, fundamentally reflected the alignment between water resource supply and food production demand. Natural background conditions formed the basis of coordination, with annual precipitation and water availability per unit cultivated land area being the dominant factors. Agricultural technology and management factors, such as water−saving irrigation ratio and reservoir capacity, could effectively compensate for natural deficiencies but required alignment with resource endowments. In summary, the agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability in the Yellow river Ω−shaped bend were highly coupled, and singular improvements in technology or resources were insufficient. A comprehensive regulation with multiple measures is required to enhance regional coordination resilience.

Key words: Water poverty, Food vulnerability, Coupling coordination, Driving factors, Yellow river Ω?shaped bend