关键词: 气候变化, 宁夏, 农业, 影响

Abstract: Since the middle of 1960s,the main characteristics of the climatic change in Ningxia are that,the temperature has risen and on the other side the precipitation has decreased.Around 1986,there had a abrupt temperature change,and then the average temperature has increased by 1.0℃.The simulation forecast showed that the average temperatures of winter,summer and the whole year would significantly increase,and the precipitation will increase over baseline period in Ningxia in 2080s.For the main crops,after the climate warming in Ningxia,the production of wheat has declined significantly in the range of 30% to 60%.However,the climate change has created the condition to introduce the high yielding varieties of rice which could decrease the yield change rate and ensuring high yield.The increase of temperature within 2.8℃ would benefit the maize production,but more than 2.8℃ may cut down the production.The increase of average temperature in growth period has had a negative impact on potato production,the growth period would begin earlier and end later,which could extend the growing season about 15 days.For the local agricultural production in Ningxia,just as the wolfberry,watermelon and wine grapes have been affected by the adverse effects of climate warming and rainfall decrease and supplemental irrigation must be taken in reason.The climate warming also has provided more adequate and more favorable energy resources to the growth of thermophilic crops like wine grapes,corn etc.which would improve the quality of these crops.In addition,climate warming has enlarged the suitable plant areas,and also has changed the varieties of crops from the early maturation to the late,developed the multi-cropping system to the north and increased the multiple cropping indexes.But the warming trend would increase the adverse impact of pest and disease on the crops.In irrigated areas,it is favorable to develop the characteristic agriculture of thermophilic crops,just like but not limited to wine grapes and watermelon,through expanding the plant area.

Key words: Climate change, Climate change, Ningxia, Agriculture, Effect