关键词: 漳州市, 果树, 12月低温, 预警模型

Abstract: By the harmonic analysis method,the 10-day mean value of minimum temperatures(TDX) in each ten-day of December in 46 calendar years from 1961 to 2006 in Zhangzhou City was simulated to find out the low temperature change in each ten-day of December.The results indicated that the TDX had the cyclic changes with 2.0,2.4,6.6,9.2 and 23.0 years in the first ten-day,with 2.0,2.6,2.7,3.5,5.8 and 7.7 years in the second ten-day and with 2.0,2.2,2.6,2.9 and 9.2 years in the last ten-day.Based on the results,three warning models were established and applied to predict the changes of TDX for each ten-day of December in Zhangzhou.The trend of low temperatures in December in Zhangzhou was analyzed.The predicted results showed that the low temperatures would not cause damage to fruit trees in Zhangzhou in 2009.Based on the projection of the warning models of the low temperature and short-term weather forecasts,the cold prevention for fruit trees in Zhangzhou should be focused on short-term pre-disaster prevention measures,including bagging,spraying of growth regulators.The study would provide the references for preventing extreme low temperatures and improving the yield and quality of the fruits.

Key words: Zhangzhou city, Zhangzhou city, Fruit tree, Low temperature in December, Early warning model