中国农业气象 ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (04): 621-626.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.04.023

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

改进的综合气象干旱指数CI new 及其适用性分析

王春林,郭晶,薛丽芳,丁丽佳   

  1. 广东省气候中心,广州 510080;南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京 210044;天津市气候中心,天津 300074;潮州市气象局,潮州521021
  • 出版日期:2011-11-20 发布日期:2011-11-23
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201106021);广东省科技计划项目(2011B020313016)

An Improved Comprehensive Meteorological Drought Index CI new and Its Applicability Analysis

WANG Chunlin, GUO Jing,XUE Lifang, DING Lijia   

  1. Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China; Department of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044; Tianjin Climate Centre, Tianjin 300074;Chaozhou Meteorology Bureau, Chaozhou 521021
  • Online:2011-11-20 Published:2011-11-23

摘要: 针对综合气象干旱指数CI的“不合理旱情加剧”问题,采用线性递减权重方法计算近90d降水和可能蒸散,提出改进的综合气象干旱指数CI new,并从干旱过程描述能力、干旱频率及旱期相对少雨季节滞后特征方面,通过与CI相比较阐述CI new 的适用性特征。结果表明,(1)CI new 在无降水时段平稳下降,有效克服了CI的“不合理旱情加剧”问题,能够描述干旱发生、发展和结束过程的丰富细节;(2)CI new 的干旱频率与CI相比没有统计意义上的差异,但由于新的相对湿润度指数项MI 90 new 统计时段由原来的30d延长至90d,使CI new 能够刻画干旱频发开始月份(11月)相对于少雨时段开始月份(10月)的滞后效应。本文可为CI new 在国内其它地方推广应用提供参考。

关键词: 改进的综合气象干旱指数CI new, 综合气象干旱指数CI, 动态监测

Abstract:  Aiming at the "unreasonable drought aggravate" problem of the comprehensive meteorological drought index CI, using linear decreasing precipitation and potential evapotranspiration accumulating methods, an improved comprehensive meteorological drought index, CI new, was put forward in the paper. Comparing with CI, applicability characteristics of CI new was analyzed from the aspects of describing ability of drought course, draught frequency features and hysteresis effect. The results showed that: (1) CI new decreased steadily during no precipitation period, therefore, CI new effectively avoided the "unreasonable drought aggravate" problem of CI, and was able to describe occurrence, development and end of drought process with rich details. (2) There was no statistical significant difference between drought frequency derived from CI new and that from CI, however, since statistical period of new relative moisture index MI 90new extended to 90 days, CI new was enabled to show hysteresis of drought season beginning month (November) to less rain season beginning month (October). The paper provides a reference when CI new is popularized to other places of China.

Key words: Improved comprehensive meteorological drought index CI new, CI, Dynamic monitoring