关键词: 日本松干蚧, 越冬期死亡率, 气象条件

Abstract: Matsucoccus matsumurae is the main pest endangered the pine. Meteorological condition of overwintering periods is the important factor of affecting population change. The effect of meteorological factors on  Matsucoccus matsumurae’mortality rate of overwintering was analyzed by using discriminate analysis, based on the selected meteorological factors. The results showed that  the lower the average lowest temperature of every ten ay period of November, the last tenday period of December and the first tenday period of March was, the higher mortality rate was. The more rainfall of the first tenday period of April was,the higher the mortality rate was. The prediction model of  Matsucoccus matsumurae’ mortality rate during overwintering was established by selecting meteorological factors, which has a direct bearing on  Matsucoccus matsumurae’ mortality rate and with longer statistic years, and the accuracy rate was 72%.The model could be used for preventing and controlling  Matsucoccus matsumurae.

Key words: Matsucoccus matsumurae, verwintering mortality rate, Meteorological condition