关键词: 高温灾害, 气象指数保险, 纯费率, Weibull分布

Abstract: Rice cv. Wuyou 157 was grown in a climate chamber at filling stage to simulate the weather pattern of high temperature disaster. The air temperature in the climate chamber was set as35℃ during the day and 28℃ during the night， and this day/night temperature regime lasted for 2， 4， 6， 8， 10， 12， 14 and 16 days， respectively. A relationship model between yield reduction rate （y） of early rice and duration of high temperature （x） was established. Based on the meteorological data of 11 cities of Jiangxi province from 1960 to 2007， the Weibull distribution model was used to calculate the probability of high temperature induced maturity， which was then combined with the yield reduction model to determine the pure premium rates for 15%， 30% and 45% of deductible excess. The results showed that the relationship between yield reduction rate （y） of early rice and duration of high temperature （x） could be well described by the following logarithmic function: y（%）=32.082lnx22.681. The probabilities of high temperature induced maturity in Yingtan and Ganzhou both reached 87.5%， which were higher than other cities in Jiangxi. However， the probabilities were below 70% in Fuzhou， Jingdezhen， Yichun and Pingxiang. The pure premium rates of high temperature induced maturity for early rice in Jiangxi province presented a descending trend from north to south， and the maximum pure premium rate was 4.707% in Yingtan and the minimum one was 2.138% in Yichun. It was considered that the deductible excess of 30% was the most appropriate for high temperature disaster of early rice in Jiangxi province. The results of this study were expected to provide a scientific basis for the implementation of policy weather index insurance for early rice in Jiangxi province．

Key words: High temperature disaster, Weather index insurance, Pure premium rate, Weibull distribution