关键词: 大白菜, 天气模型, 预报方程, 预警服务

Abstract: By analysis of the growth characteristics under the climate conditions in Changzhi,the suitable harvest time of the Chinese cabbage and the freeze injury standard were studied. The 30 examples of the possible freeze climate process in November during 1976-2005 were analyzed,by applying history weather charts of 500hPa and surface. The results showed that the synoptic model which brought out the strong cold air included two trough-one ridge type,one trough-one ridge type,northeast cold eddy type and East Asian big trough type. The source field of cold air located in the three areas 40-55°N,70-90°E and 35-50°N,90-115°E and 50-60°N,90-115°E. The influence ways of the cold air were western way and north way. Surface pressure field was mainly controlled by the huge clod high pressure. Using the most superior subset return law,the predicting factors were sifted among the temperature data of upper air target stations on the 500hPa and 850hPa and real-time meteorological data of Changzhi station. The 72-hour predictive equation for the suitable harvest time of the Chinese cabbage against freeze injury was established. At the cabbage harvest period of 2007-2008,freeze injury weather process of the Chinese cabbage was accurately predicted by using the forecast equation. The early warning information was sent to avoid the damage of the freeze injury.

Key words: Chinese cabbage, Chinese cabbage, Weather model, Prediction equation, Early Warning Services