安徽河蟹养殖高温热害天气指数模型设计与实践

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2020.05.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于安徽省当涂县2012-2016年3个河蟹养殖池塘的物联网水温观测数据和河蟹产量数据、死亡率数据，以及1985-2016年当涂县逐日气象数据，分析不同深度水温与河蟹产量的相关性，确定池塘河蟹高温热害关键致灾因子和致灾临界值。通过构建关键致灾因子与气温的关系模型，推算池塘养殖河蟹的高温热害致灾临界气象条件，定义高温热害天气指数。在此基础上，结合河蟹高温热害死亡率样本，利用K-均值聚类分析方法，建立高温热害等级指标，设计池塘养殖河蟹高温热害天气指数保险产品，并试点应用。结果表明：池塘养殖河蟹高温热害关键致灾因子为60cm深度日平均水温，其致灾临界值为31℃。60cm深度日平均水温与前一日平均气温相关性最高，根据其关系模型可知，发生高温热害的临界气象条件为日平均气温≥30.5℃。因此，池塘养殖河蟹高温热害指数（S）定义为：6月21日-9月10日，日平均气温≥30.5℃的天数。池塘养殖河蟹高温热害等级指标为：轻度死亡率0～1%（0

关键词: , 池养河蟹, 高温热害, 致灾因子, 等级指标, 天气指数保险

Abstract: Weather index agricultural insurance is an important way of avoiding agricultural production risk and improving recovery capabilities. Based on the water temperature observation data from internet of things and Chinese hairy crab yield data in three intensive culture ponds from 2012 to 2016, mortality data from 2001 to 2016 and daily surface meteorological observation data from 1985 to 2016 in Dangtu of Anhui province, the correlations between water temperatures at different depths and the yield of Chinese hairy crab (Eriocheir Sinensis) were analyzed, the key disaster-inducing factor of high temperature disaster and its critical value were determined. Then, the correlations between key disaster-inducing factor and air temperatures were analyzed and their relationship model was built. Based on the relationship model, the critical value of air temperature was calculated and the heat damage weather index of China hairy crab was defined. Based on this, combined with the Chinese hairy crab mortality data caused by high temperature disaster, the grade indices of high temperature disaster were established by K-means clustering analysis method. The insurance claim schemes based on the grade indices were designed preliminarily and was applied in Dangtu. The results showed that the key disaster-inducing factor of high temperature disaster was daily average water temperature at 60cm depth and its critical value was 31℃.The key disaster-inducing factor had the most correlation with daily average air temperature of the previous day. Based on their relationship model, the critical value of daily average temperature was calculated to be 30.5℃, the value of cumulative days when daily average temperature equal or greater than 30.5℃ from June 21 to September 10 were defined as the high temperature disaster weather index of Chinese hairy crab（S）.The damage could be defined as slight when the mortality was between 0-1%(0

Key words: Chinese hairy crab, High temperature disaster, Key disaster-inducing factor, Grade indices, Weather index insurance

中图分类号:

刘瑞娜，杨太明，陈金龙，陈金华，孙喜波. 安徽河蟹养殖高温热害天气指数模型设计与实践[J]. 中国农业气象, 2020, 41(05): 320-327.

LIU Rui-na, YANG Tai-ming, CHEN Jin-long, CHEN Jin-hua, SUN Xi-bo. Design and Application on Weather Indices Model for High Temperature Disaster of Chinese Hairy Crab in Anhui[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2020, 41(05): 320-327.

参考文献

[1] 陈军伟,马旭洲,王武,等.中华绒螯蟹幼蟹生长和蜕壳与积温关系的研究[J].上海海洋大学学报,2016,(5):675-683. Chen J W,Ma X Z,Wang W,et al.The study of relationships between growth, molt and accumulated temperature of the Chinese mitten crab(Eriocheir sinensis)[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2016,(5):675-683.(in Chinese) [2] 刘布春,梅旭荣.农业保险的理论与实践[M]北京:科学出版社,2010:230-262. Liu B C,Mei X R.Theory and practice of agricultural insurance[M].Beijing:Sciences Press,2010:230-260.(in Chinese) [3] Makki S S.Crop insurance:inherent problems and innovation solutions[A].Agriculture Policy for the 21 Century[C].Ames: Iowa State Press,2002. [4] Wenner M,Arias D.Agriculture insurance in Latin American:where are we[R].Paving the Way Forward for Rural Finance an International Conference on Best Practices, 2003. [5] 刘映宁,贺文丽,李艳丽,等.陕西果区苹果花期冻害农业保险风险指数的设计[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):125-129. Liu Y N,He W L,Li Y L,et al.A study on the risk index design of agricultural insurance on apple florescence freezing injury in Shaanxi fruit zone[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2010,31(1):125-129.(in Chinese) [6] 杨小利.甘肃平凉市苹果花期冻害农业保险风险等级评估[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):281-285. Yang X L.Risk assessment of agricultural insurance on apple freezing injury at blooming stage in Pingliang of Gansu province[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2014,32(2):281-285. (in Chinese) [7] 娄伟平,吉宗伟,邱新法,等.茶叶霜冻气象指数保险设计[J].自然资源学报, 2011,26(12):2050-2060. Lou W P,Ji Z W,Qiu X F,et al.Design of weather index insurance contact for tea frost[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2011,26(12):2050-2060.(in Chinese) [8] 毛裕定,吴利红,苗长明,等.浙江省柑桔冻害气象指数保险参考设计[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(2):226-230. Mao Y D,Wu L H,Miao C M,et al.A reference design for citrus freeze damage insurance by using meteorological index in Zhejiang province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2007,28(2):226-230.(in Chinese) [9] 任义方,赵艳霞,张旭辉,等.江苏水稻高温热害气象指数保险风险综合区划[J].中国农业气象,2019,40 (6):391-401. Ren Y F,Zhao Y X,Zhang X H,et al.Comprehensive risk regionalization of meteorological index insurance for high temperature heat damage of rice in Jiangsu province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2019,40(6): 391-401.(in Chinese) [10] 栾庆祖,董鹏捷,叶彩华.面向气象指数保险的水果冰雹灾害灾损评估方法[J].中国农业气象,2019,40(6):402-410. Luan Q Z,Dong P J,Ye C H.A Weather-index-based insurance-oriented method for hail disaster assessment on fruits loss[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2019, 40(6):402-410.(in Chinese) [11] 杨太明,许莹,孙喜波,等.安徽省夏玉米干旱天气指数保险产品设计及应用[J].气象,2016,42(4):450-455. Yang T M,Xu Y,Sun X B,et al.Design and application of the drought weather index insurance of summer corn in Anhui province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(4):450-455. (in Chinese) [12] 杨太明,孙喜波,刘布春.安徽省水稻高温热害保险天气指数模型设计[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):220-226. Yang T M,Sun X B,Liu B C.Design on weather indices model for insurance of rice heat damage in Anhui province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015, 36(2):220-226.(in Chinese) [13] 杨太明,刘布春,孙喜波,等.安徽省冬小麦种植保险天气指数设计与应用[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(2):229-235. Yang T M,Liu B C,Sun X B,et al.Design and application of the weather indices of winter wheat planting insurance in Anhui province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34(2):229-235.(in Chinese) [14] 王建国.气象指数型水产养殖保险研究[J].保险研究,2014,3:62-68. Wang J G.A study on the weather index-based aquaculture insurance[J].Insurance Studies,2014,3:62-68.(in Chinese) [15] 李亚琦,韩兴勇,岳宗胜. 海水养殖风力指数保险设计及费率厘定研究:以广东省为例[J].海洋经济,2016,6(3):3-9. Li Y Q,Han X Y,Yue Z S.On the design of a wind speed index-based mariculture insurance and related premium rating:a case study of Guangdong province[J].Marine Economy,2016,6(3):3-9.(in Chinese) [16] 刘静,马力文,张晓煜,等.春小麦干热风灾害监测指标与损失评估模型方法探讨:以宁夏引黄灌区为例[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(2):217-224. Liu J,Ma L W,Zhang X Y,et al.A method for monitoring dry-hot wind of spring wheat and estimating its yield losses:an example in irrigated areas of Ningxia[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2004,15(2):217-224.(in Chinese) [17] 辜晓青,江国振.河蟹养殖生态、气象影响因子观测研究[J].江西农业学报,2015,(4):88-93. Gu X Q,Jiang Q Z.Researches on ecological and meteorological factors affecting crab breeding[J].Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi,2015,(4):88-93.(in Chinese) [18] 曹雯,武万里,杨太明,等.宁夏枸杞炭疽病害天气指数保险研究[J].干旱气象,2019,37(5):857-865, Cao W,Wu W L,Yang T M,et al.Study on weather index insurance of colletotrichum gloeosporioides penz of China wolfberry in Ningxi[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2019, 37(5):857-865.(in Chinese) [19] 时冬头,许祥,陈贤明.中华绒螯蟹成蟹生长与主要气象因素的关系[J].江苏农业科学,2013,41(4):226-228. Shi D T,Xu X,Chen X M.Research progress of effects of temperature on growth and development of shrimp and crab[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2013,41(4):226-228. (in Chinese) [20] 王晓丽.高温指数型海水养殖保险产品研究:以山东省莱州市海参养殖为例[D].泰州:山东农业大学,2019:50-55. Wang X L.Research on high temperature index mariculture insurance products:taking the cultivation of sea cucumber in Laizhou city[D].Taizhou:Shandong Agriculture University, 2019:50-55.(in Chinese) [21] 李青,陈永祥.温度对虾蟹生长发育影响的研究进展[J].江苏农业科学,2019,47(10):26-31. Li Q,Chen Y X.Research progress of effects of temperature on growth and development of shrimp and crab[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2019,47(10),26-31.(in Chinese) [22] 黄永平,刘可群,苏荣瑞,等.淡水养殖水体溶解氧含量诊断分析及浮头泛塘气象预报[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014, 23(5):638-643. Huang Y P,Liu K Q,Su R R,et al.Meteorological influencing elements of dissolved oxygen concentration in fish ponds and new models to forecast fish floating head[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(5): 638-643. (in Chinese)