关键词: 最大熵模型, 四川省, 鲜食葡萄, 气候适宜性, 主导气候因子

Abstract: Based on the growth characteristics and physiological mechanism of table grape, the climatic factors affecting its planting and distribution were collected. Combined with the distribution information of table grape plantation, the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt) was used to analyze the potential distribution and climate characteristics of table grape in Sichuan. The results showed that, four domain environmental variables(cumulative contribution percentage of 89.8%) and their indicator ranges(80% of potential distribution area of table grapes) were active accumulated temperature ≥10℃(4145−6283℃·d), annual range of temperature (6.7−9.0℃), annual sunshine hours(924−1314h) and annual precipitation(804−1247mm). The highly suitable areas were mainly distributed in Guang'an, Chengdu, southwest Leshan, Yibin, Luzhou and the central part of Liangshan, with climatic characteristics of active accumulated temperature ≥10℃(5197−6082℃·d), annual range of temperature(6.5−7.6℃), annual sunshine hours(902−1241h) and annual precipitation(861−1124mm). The moderately suitable areas were distributed in the most areas of the basin except for the mountain areas around the basin, as well as in south of Liangshan and southwest of Panzhihua, with climatic characteristics of active accumulated temperature ≥10℃ (5053−6144℃·d), annual range of temperature(6.7−7.7℃), annual sunshine hours(868−1356h) and annual precipitation(807−1139mm). The lowly suitable areas were concentrated in the north of the basin, the mountain areas in the west of the basin and the north of Panxi area, with climatic characteristics of active accumulated temperature ≥10℃(3227−5549℃·d), annual range of temperature(7.8−13.4℃), annual sunshine hours(948−2049h) and annual precipitation(643−1187mm). The unsuitable areas were mainly located in the Western Sichuan Plateau and northeast Panxi. The areas of highly, moderately, lowly and unsuitable areas accounted for 11.8%, 23.6%, 23.1% and 41.5% of the total area of Sichuan respectively. The results showed that climate were the main environmental factors affecting the cultivation of table grape, and the leading role of the four selected domain variables was very obvious. The simulation results can provide a scientific reference for the planting decision of table grape in Sichuan.

Key words: Maximum entropy model, Sichuan province, Table grape, Potential distribution, Climatic characteristics