关键词: 霜冻害, 风险指数, 风险评估, 减产率, 茶叶

Abstract: In order to reduce the spring frost damage to tea plant in Anhui province, based on the daily meteorological observation data from1981 to 2017 of 45 stations, as well as garden area and tea production of 45 counties in tea plantation district from 1998 to 2017, the spring frost risk index was built by weighted index sum method. The index included comprehensive frequency of spring frost, sensitivity index of slope aspect, tea area and variation coefficient of yield reduction. The spring frost risk zoning was analyzed using the ANUSPLIN and geographic information system. The results showed that the areas of high-risk region, medium-risk region and low-risk region were118×104ha, 337×104ha, 353×104ha, and take 14.6%, 41.7% , 43.7% of the gross area of tea plantation district respectively in Anhui province. The high-risk region was mainly distributed in Jinzhai county, Huoshan county, Yuexi county, Qianshan county in Dabieshan tea area and the mountain areas with altitude above 600m in Jiangnan tea area, and scattered in the windward slope regions in Jiangbei tea area. The medium-risk region was mainly distributed in mountain areas with altitude below 600m in Dabieshan tea area and Jiangnan tea area, as well as hilly and low mountains in Jiangbei tea area. The low-risk region was mainly concentrated in the region along the Yangtze river, and scattered in low mountain areas in Jiangnan tea area. The spring frost risk index constructed in this paper can objectively reflect the risk level of spring frost damage to tea plant. This study provides a scientific foundation for tea disaster prevention and disaster management.

Key words: Frost disaster, Risk index, Risk assessment, Yield reduction, Tea