中国农业气象 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 985-997.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.12.001

• 农业气候资源与气候变化栏目 •    下一篇

气候变化影响链的形成机制及其应对

潘志华,黄娜,郑大玮   

  1. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-31 出版日期:2021-12-20 发布日期:2021-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 潘志华,教授,研究方向为气候变化影响与适应、旱地农业可持续发展, E-mail:panzhihua@cau.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:潘志华,教授,研究方向为气候变化影响与适应、旱地农业可持续发展
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目“京津冀地区适应增暖路径及社会经济代价综合评估研究”(2018YFD0606303);“黄淮海北部小麦-玉米重要灾害绿色防控与减灾关键技术研究”(2017YFD0300906)

Mechanism on the Formation of Climate Change Impact Chain and Its Responses

PAN Zhi-hua, HUANG Na, ZHENG Da-wei   

  1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2021-03-31 Online:2021-12-20 Published:2021-11-28

摘要: 目前气候变化的影响研究多集中在直接影响,间接影响考虑较少。对气候变化影响传递认识的不全面是应对气候变化的盲点之一,探讨气候变化影响链的形成机制对应对气候变化具有重要意义。本研究基于对气候变化影响特征的分析,探讨气候变化影响链的形成机制,界定了气候变化影响链的内涵,明确了气候变化的影响层级,并提出气候变化影响链的应对途径。研究表明,气候变化影响具有广泛性、差异性、持续性、突发性、传递性及可转化性等特征。气候变化及其带来的各种胁迫与干扰作用于受体系统之后,受体系统与其它系统联系,把这种胁迫与干扰传递到其它系统,导致气候变化的影响在时间上和空间上不断延伸,形成复杂的气候变化影响链。气候变化作用于直接受体后,其影响在生态系统中会沿着食物链传递,在经济系统中沿着产业链传递,在社会系统中沿着社会关系链传递;影响链的传递以物质流、能量流、信息流的形式进行。气候变化的影响总是从低层级到高层级,沿着资源禀赋的变化上升到自然生产系统、经济生产系统直至社会系统。研究认为,有效阻控或切断气候变化不利影响的传递,能够有效降低气候变化影响的风险与损失。气候变化影响链及其形成机制为全面应对气候变化提供了思路与途径。

关键词: 气候变化影响链, 形成机制, 内涵, 分类, 影响层级, 气候变化应对

Abstract: Once climate change brings various stresses and disturbances on the receptor system, the receptor system will transfer these stresses and disturbances to other systems through its connection with them, resulting in the continuous extension of climate change effects in time and space, forming a complex climate change impact chain. At present, studies on the impacts of climate change mostly focus on the direct impacts, while the indirect impacts are rarely considered. The incomplete understanding of the impact transmission of climate change is one of the main constraints in addressing climate change. It is of great significance to explore the formation mechanism of the impact chain of climate change. This research analyzed the characteristics of climate change impacts, explored the formation mechanism of climate change impact chains, defined the connotation and classification of climate change impact chains, clarified the impact levels of climate change, and proposed ways to cope with climate change impact chains. The results showed that the impacts of climate change were extensive, different, persistent, transferable, transformable, and sometime sudden. When climate change acted on the direct receptors, the impacts of climate change would be transmitted along the food chain in the ecosystem, along the industrial chain in the economic system, and along the social relationship chain in the social system. The transmission of impact chain took the form of material flow, energy flow and information flow. The impacts of climate change always rose from low to high levels, along changes in resource endowments to natural production, economic production systems and social systems. It is believed that the effective control or cutting off of the transmission of adverse impacts of climate change can effectively reduce the impact risks and losses of climate change. The impact chain of climate change and its formation mechanism provide ideas and approaches for people to deal with climate change comprehensively.

Key words: Climate change impact chain, Formation mechanism, Connotation, Classification, Impact hierarchy, Climate change response