• 论文 •

### 菏泽市近48年来气候变化特征及未来趋势分析

1. 山东省菏泽市气象局;
• 出版日期:2009-12-20 发布日期:2009-12-20

### Analysis of Characteristics and the Future Trend of Climate Change in Heze over the Last 48 Years

LI Rui-ying,ZHANG Cui-ying,LIU Ji-min(Meteorological Bureau of Heze City,Heze 274000,China)

• Online:2009-12-20 Published:2009-12-20

Abstract: By using linear and Rescaled Range Analysis(R/S) method,the change characteristic and the future trends of the annual average temperature,the annual sunshine duration and the annual precipitation were analyzed in Heze from 1961 to 2008.The results showed that the temperature increased in the last 48 years at a rate of 0.17℃ per ten years,while the Hurst index was 0.77 which indicated that the temperature would rise continuously in the future.The annual sunshine duration decreased at a rate of 127.46 hours per ten years,while the Hurst index was 0.95 which indicated that the sunshine duration would decrease continuously in the future.The annual precipitation showed no obvious change,while the Hurst index was 0.595 which indicated that the trend was great random and would change or remain stable in the future.

Key words: Heze, Climate, Change trend