关键词: 条锈病, 归一化, 指标, 模式, 应用

Abstract: The yearly activity periods of the stripe rust of wheat in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River were divided into four stages,namely the invading stage for young plant in autumn,overwintering inactive stage,reviving and extending stage and spring epidemic stage.The meteorological factors with the statistical and epidemical significance for the plant diseases were identified by stages.The meteorological indexes for stripe rust of wheat were composed by classification and averaging.The unitary and multi-time-span meteorological forecast models for the stripe rust of wheat were established by regression methods.The verified and application results showed that the meteorological indexes were closely related to the degree of the occurrence of stripe rust of wheat.The correlative coefficient was between 0.4257 and 0.7713.The rate of the backtracking and fitting for the forecast models of the different stages was between 88.9% and 100%.The validation results for 2006 and 2007 were satisfied.It was proved that the forecast models could be used in forecasting the occurrence degree of the stripe rust of wheat in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.

Key words: Stripe rust of wheat, Stripe rust of wheat, Unitarity, Index, Model, Application