中国农业气象

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 气候变化对广西双季稻种植布局的影响

 黄维,吴炫柯,刘永裕,何燕,安佳君   

  1.  1.柳州市农业气象试验站,柳州 545003;2.广西气象科学研究所,南宁 530022
  • 出版日期:2020-09-20 发布日期:2020-09-13
  • 作者简介:黄维,E-mail:827643506@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
     广西科技重点研发计划项目(桂科AB171195037);广西自然科学基金(2020GXNSFAA159028);中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司项目“农业气象试验站冬小麦、水稻、玉米区域联合试验”(气减函2017-53)

 Impact of Climate Change on Layout of Double Cropping Rice in Guangxi

 HUANG Wei, WU Xuan-ke, LIU Yong-yu, HE Yan, AN Jia-jun   

  1.  1.Liuzhou Agrometeorological Experimental Station, Liuzhou, Guangxi 545003, China; 2.Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanning, Guangxi 530022
  • Online:2020-09-20 Published:2020-09-13
  • Supported by:
     

摘要:  利用1960?2019年广西91个气象站逐日气温和日照时数资料,将研究时段分成前30a(P1:1960-1989年)和后30a(P2:1990-2019年)两个阶段,分析影响水稻种植布局的4个关键气候因子即双季稻安全生育期、安全期内≥10℃活动积温、全年日平均气温≥10℃期间的日照总时数和年平均气温的变化规律,采用等权重原则对两个阶段的关键气候因子进行评估打分,根据总得分将广西双季稻种植划分为单季再生稻(S+R)、早中熟双季稻(E+M)、中迟熟双季稻(M+L)和迟熟双季稻(L+L)4个气候适宜区组合模式,并分析两个阶段内双季稻不同组合模式的空间分布特征及变化规律。结果表明:桂北和桂西水稻安全生育期显著延长,研究区大部分地区安全期内≥10℃活动积温和年平均气温显著上升,而全年日平均气温≥10℃日照总时数显著下降。热量资源在空间上呈现向北向高海拔地区递增趋势,而日照时数由北向南减少,后30a(1990-2019年)单季再生稻和中迟熟双季稻气候适宜区面积较前30a(1960-1989年)分别提高2.1个和4.2个百分点,而早中熟双季稻和迟熟双季稻气候适宜区面积较前30a(1960-1989年)分别下降了3.6个和2.7个百分点,变化显著的区域主要分布在桂林阳朔、荔浦地区,贺州市区周边以及南宁马山、隆安地区。

关键词:  气候变化, 水稻, 种植区划, 广西

Abstract:  Climate change has become an indisputable fact. According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average temperature has increased by 0.85 ℃ in the past 100 years. Warming as the main feature of climate change has had a series of important impacts on cropping system and quality layout. Its concrete performance is as follows: crop planting boundaries moved to north and expanded to high altitude, crop variety layout and crop planting structure changed obviously, and multi-cropping indices increased significantly. Relevant researches revealed that annual and seasonal average temperature showed a roughly upward trend in paddy region of Guangxi. In addition, growth period and agricultural climate resources allocation pattern changed obviously in these areas. Layout of double cropping rice is sensitive to the change of agricultural resources. However, the impacts of climate change on the planting layout of double cropping rice in Guangxi was seldom discussed. In order to reveal the change characteristics of layout of double cropping rice under the background of climate change, meteorological data from Guangxi Meteorological Bureau and geographic data from National Geomatics Center of China were utilized in the study. Four climatic factors were selected as the key factors which affected the layout of rice planting .They were safe days of growth period of double cropping rice, active integrated temperature (≥10℃) during safe growth period, total sunshine hours during the period of daily average temperature above 10℃ in a year and annual average temperature respectively. In this paper they were abbreviated to D, AT, SH and T. Based on the daily temperature and sunshine hours of 91 meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1960 to 2019, changing trend of four key climatic factors were analyzed. The study period was divided into two phases, namely first 30 years (P1:1960-1989) and last 30 years (P2:1990-2019). The equal weight principle was used to evaluate and score each key climatic factor in the two phases. According to the total scores of four key climatic factors, double cropping rice planting zones were divided into four climatic suitable regions in Guangxi, namely regions of single cropping and ratooning rice (S+R), regions of early and medium maturing double cropping rice (E+M), regions of medium and late maturing double cropping rice (M+L) and regions of late maturing double cropping rice (L+L). Different combination patterns of double cropping rice mentioned above were determined by their demands for agricultural climatic resources. Generally speaking, demand of single cropping and ratooning rice for heat resources was small. It mainly distributed in the high altitude areas of north and west of Guangxi, while the late maturing double cropping rice distributed in south areas involved Youjiang river valley of Guangxi because of the great demand for heat resources and longer safe growth season. Early and middle maturing double cropping rice and middle and late maturing double cropping rice mainly distributed in the central areas of Guangxi. Their demands for agricultural climatic resources were between S+R and L+L. In the end, the spatial distribution characteristics and changing rules of different combination patterns of double cropping rice were analyzed in two phases. The results revealed that safe days of growth period of double cropping rice increased significantly in the north and west of Guangxi. Active integrated temperature(≥10℃) and annual average temperature increased significantly, while the total sunshine hours during the period of daily average temperature above 10℃ in a year decreased significantly in most study areas. The heat resources increased towards to the north and high altitude, while sunshine hours decreased from the north to the south. Comparing with the first 30 years (P1:1960-1989), climatic suitable areas of single cropping and ratooning rice and medium and late maturing double cropping rice increased by 2.1 and 4.2 percent point, while those of early and middle maturing double cropping rice and late maturing double cropping rice decreased by 3.6 and 2.7 percent point in the last 30 years (P2:1990-2019). The significantly changing areas mainly distributed in Yangshuo and Lipu regions of Guilin, the surrounding regions of Hezhou, Mashan and Longan regions of Nanning. The purpose of this research is to provide a scientific reference to make full use of the sunlight and heat resources under background of climate change and to optimize planting layout of double cropping rice in Guangxi.

Key words:  Climate change, Rice, Planting regionalization, Guangxi

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