中国农业气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (04): 262-275.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2022.04.002

• 农业生物气象栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于MaxEnt模型预测未来气候变化情景下中国区域水稻潜在适生区的变化

吕彤,郭倩,丁永霞,刘力,彭守璋   

  1. 1.西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,杨凌 712100;2. 陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室/宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,宝鸡 721013;3. 浙江树人学院,绍兴 310015;4.西北农林科技大学黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌 712100
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-09 出版日期:2022-04-20 发布日期:2022-04-18
  • 通讯作者: 彭守璋,研究员,研究方向为气候变化及应对,E-mail:szp@nwafu.edu.cn E-mail:szp@nwafu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:吕彤,E-mail:alculvt@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42077451);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0603);2021浙江软科学计划研究项目“生态文明视域下浙江典型湾区绿色发展评价研究-以三门湾为例”(2021C35083);内陆河流域中科院重点实验室开放基金(KLEIRB-ZS-20-04)

Predicting Potential Suitable Planting Area of Rice in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model

LV Tong, GUO Qian, DING Yong-xia, LIU Li, PENG Shou-zhang   

  1. 1. College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China; 2. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disasters Monitoring & Mechanism Simulation/College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013; 3. Zhejiang Shuren University, Shaoxing 310015; 4. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100
  • Received:2021-08-09 Online:2022-04-20 Published:2022-04-18

摘要: 基于双季稻(早稻、晚稻)和一季稻的站点数据以及历史时期(1970−2000年)与未来时期(2081−2100年)气候数据,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),研究影响中国水稻种植分布的主要气候因子,并预测分析水稻在历史与未来时期适生区的变化,为未来气候变化下中国水稻的合理种植提供参考依据。结果表明:(1)影响双季稻分布的主要气候因子为最干旱月降水量、最暖季度平均气温和最干旱季度降水量;影响一季稻分布的主要气候因子为年平均气温和最暖季度降水量。(2)在历史时期,早稻和晚稻适宜种植区主要在长江中下游地区及以南地区,其适宜种植区面积占比分别为14.26%和13.01%,其中大部分地区为较适宜区,占比分别为7.66%和6.62%;一季稻适宜种植区面积占比为45.46%,主要以较适宜和适宜地区为主,面积占比分别为23.47%和18.86%。(3)相比历史时期,未来时期早稻的适宜种植区面积占比在SSP126、SSP245和SSP585情景下将分别增加6.27个、9.26个和16.66个百分点,晚稻分别增加4.26个、5.55个和10.97个百分点,一季稻分别增加11.34个、18.46个和28.31个百分点。到21世纪末,早稻的适宜种植区在空间分布上向川渝、黄淮地区扩张,晚稻的适宜种植区在空间分布上向川渝和长江中下游地区以北小部分地区扩张,一季稻的完全适宜区表现出向华北平原和东北地区扩张。整体而言,未来气候变化有助于扩大中国水稻适宜种植区。

关键词: 水稻, 气候因子, 潜在适生区, MaxEnt 模型

Abstract: To provide a scientific basis for reasonably planting rice in China, this study investigated the major climatic factors affecting the rice distribution and predicted the changes of rice suitable areas in the past and future periods, using the distribution data of rice, the high-spatial-resolution historical (1970−2000) and future (2081−2100) climate data, and the MaxEnt model. The results showed: (1) the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of early rice and late rice were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest quarter, and precipitation of driest quarter, and those of single-season rice were annual mean temperature and precipitation of warmest quarter; (2) In the historical period, the suitable planting areas for early rice and late rice in China were mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the south of the Yangtze River, accounting for 14.26% and 13.01%, respectively, where most of the regions were slight suitable areas, accounting for 7.66% and 6.62%, respectively. The area of the suitable planting area for one season rice accounted for 45.46%, and most of the regions were slight suitable areas and suitable areas, accounting for 23.47% and 18.86%, respectively; (3) Compared with the historical period, the future suitable planting areas of early rice under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios increased by 6.27, 9.26, and 16.66 percentage points, respectively; the future suitable planting areas of late rice increased by 4.26, 5.55, and 10.97 percentage points, respectively; and the suitable planting area of one season rice increased by 11.34, 18.46 and 28.31 percentage points, respectively. To the end of the century, the suitable planting areas for early rice would expand to Sichuan, Chongqing and Huang-Huai area, the suitable planting areas for late rice would expand to Sichuan, Chongqing and a small area of the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the optimum suitable areas for one-cropping rice showed spatial expansion to the North China Plain and Northeast China. In general, future climate change will contribute to the expansion of suitable rice planting areas over China.

Key words: Rice, Climate factor, Potential suitable planting area, MaxEnt model