湖北暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性评估的定量研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000?6362.2018.08.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于湖北省76个气象站1961-2016年逐日降水资料、2004-2016年主汛期（6-8月）主要暴雨过程的灾情资料以及《降雨过程强度等级》行业标准，通过灰色关联法和曲线拟合法，针对强降水过程，构建湖北省暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性曲线模型，其中2004-2015年数据用于模型的构建和回代检验，2016年数据用于模型的外延预评估，以期定量化评估强降水过程造成的暴雨洪涝灾害的影响。结果表明：以受灾面积比重、受灾人口比重、直接经济损失比重和表征灾情综合影响的综合相对灾情指数作为脆弱性定量化评估对象，构建的湖北省暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性曲线模型，在外延预评估中，除直接经济损失比重的一致准确率为60%外，其它指标的一致准确率均在80%以上，等级预评估检验误差均在1个等级以内，模型评价效果较好。

关键词: 暴雨洪涝灾害, 脆弱性曲线, 湖北

Abstract: Quantitative assessment on the vulnerability of storm flood disasters in Hubei Province is of great significance to the development of flood control and disaster relief. In this study, aiming to the heavy rainfall process, daily precipitation data at 76 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2016 in Hubei Province, disaster records of the rainstorm process during the main flood season (from June to August) from 2004 to 2016 in Hubei Province, and the meteorological industry standard of China for the intensity grade of rainfall process were jointly used to build the vulnerability curve model of storm flood disasters in Hubei Province by using grey correlation and curve fitting methods. The disaster records from 2004 to 2015 were used to build the vulnerability model and do back-testing, and the rest data in 2016 were used to extensively evaluate the impacts of the rainstorm process on the storm flood disasters. The results showed that based on the vulnerability curve model, the accuracy rates of disaster level assessment for the proportion of the affected population, proportion of the affected area, proportion of the direct economic losses, and comprehensive relative disaster index were 80%, 100%, 60%, and 100%, respectively. All the errors of disaster level assessment for above four indices were equal to or less than one level, which showed that the vulnerability curve model built in this study was suitable for the quantitative assessment of storm flood disasters.

Key words: Storm flood disaster, Vulnerability curve, Hubei Province

温泉沛，周月华，霍治国，李兰，方思达，史瑞琴，车钦. 湖北暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性评估的定量研究[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(08): 547-557.

WEN Quan-pei, ZHOU Yue-hua, HUO Zhi-guo, LI Lan, FANG Si-da, SHI Rui-qin, CHE Qin. Quantitative Assessment on Vulnerability of Storm Flood Disasters in Hubei Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(08): 547-557.

参考文献

[1]卞洁,李双林,何金海.长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(5):604-611. Bian J,Li S L,He J H.Risk assessment of flood disaster in the Mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze[J].Journal of Applied Meterological Science,2011,22(5):604-611.(in Chinese) [2]李茂松,李森,李育慧.中国近50年洪涝灾害灾情分析[J].中国农业气象,2004,25(1):40-43. Li M S,Li S,Li Y H.Analysis of flood disaster in the past 50 years in China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2004, 25(1): 40-43.(in Chinese) [3]陈波,史瑞琴,陈正洪.近45年华中地区不同级别强降水事件变化趋势[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(1):47-54. Chen B,Shi R Q,Chen Z H.The variation tendency of heavy precipitation events in different grades during recent 45 years over Central China[J].Journal of Applied Meterological Science,2010,21(1):47-54.(in Chinese) [4]周悦,周月华,叶丽梅,等.湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究[J].气象,2016,42(2):221-229. Zhou Y,Zhou Y H,Ye L M,et al.Preliminary study on disasstrous law of drought and flood in Hubei Province[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(2):221-229.(in Chinese). [5]刘可群,陈正洪,张礼平,等.湖北省近45年降水气候变化及其对旱涝的影响[J].气象,2007,33(11):58-64. Liu K Q,Chen Z H,Zhang L P,et al. Analysis of precipitation characteristics in Hubei Province and their influence on flood/drought in the last 45 years[J].Meteorological Monthly, 2007,33(11):58-64.(in Chinese) [6]World Bank.Hazards of nature, risk to development: an IEG evaluation of World Bank assistance for natural disaster[R]. Washington DC:World Bank,2006. [7]石勇,许世远,石纯,等.洪水灾害脆弱性研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(1):41-46. Shi Y,Xu S Y,Shi C,et al. A review on development of vulnerability assessment of floods[J]. Progress in Geography, 2009,28(1):41-46.(in Chinese) [8]周瑶,王静爱.自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(4):435-442. Zhou Y,Wang J A.A review on development of vulnerability curve of natural disaster[J].Progress in Geography,2012, 27(4):435-442.(in Chinese) [9]史培军.中国自然灾害风险地图集[M].北京:科学出版社,2010． Shi P J.Atlas of natural disaster risk of China[M]. Beijing: Science Press,2010.(in Chinese) [10]Gissing A,Blong R.Accounting for variability in commercial flood damage estimation[J].Australian Geographer,2010, 35(2):209-222. [11]Dutta D,Herath S,Musiake K.A mathematical model for flood loss estimation[J].Journal of Hydrology,2003, 277(1): 24-49． [12]Scawthorn C,Flores P,Blais N,et al.HAZUS-MH flood loss estimation methodology II:damage and loss assessment[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(2):72-81. [13]Kappes M S,Keliler M,von Elverfeldt K,et al.Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk:a review[J].Natural Hazards, 2012,64(2):1925-1958． [14]Pistrika A,Tsakiris G,Nalbantis I.Flood depth-damage functions for built environment[J].Environmental Processes, 2014,1(4):553-572. [15]杨佩国,靳京,赵东升.基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据的城市脆弱性定量研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):733-739. Yang P G,Jin J,Zhao D S,et al.An urban vulnerability study based on historical flood data:a case study of Beijing[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(5):733-739.(in Chinese) [16]石勇.城市居民住宅的暴雨内涝脆弱性评估:以上海为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(3):94-98. Shi Y.The vulnerability assessment of residences in rainstorm water logging in cities:a case study on Shanghai[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(3):94-98.(in Chinese) [17]权瑞松.基于情景模拟的上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝脆弱性分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1399-1402. Quan R S.Vulnerability analysis of rainstorm waterlogging on buildings in central urban area of Shanghai based on scenario simulation[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014, 34(11):1399-1402.(in Chinese) [18]莫婉媚,方伟华.浙江省余姚市室内财产洪水脆弱性曲线:基于台风菲特(201323)灾后问卷调查[J].热带地理,2016, 36(4):633-641. Mo W M,Fang W H.Empirical vulnerability functions of building contents to flood based on post-typhoon (Fitow, 201323)questionnaire survey in Yuyao,Zhejiang[J].Tropical Geography,2016,36(4):633-641.(in Chinese) [19]刘耀龙,陈振楼,王军,等.经常性暴雨内涝区域房屋财(资)产脆弱性研究:以温州市为例[J].灾害学,2011,26(2):66-71. Liu Y L,Chen Z L,Wang J,et al.Study on property (capital) vulnerability of houses in regular rainstorm water-logging areas:taking Wenzhou city as example[J].Journal of Catastro- phology,2011,26(2):66-71.(in Chinese) [20]郭桂祯,赵飞,王丹丹.基于脆弱性曲线的台风:洪涝灾害链房屋倒损评估方法研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(4):94-97. Guo G Z,Zhao F,Wang D D.A method research of house damage in typhoon:flood disaster chian based on vu1nera bility curve[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017, 32(4): 94-97. (in Chinese) [21]董姝娜,姜鎏鹏,张继权,等.基于“3S”技术的村镇住宅洪灾脆弱性曲线研究[J].灾害学,2012,27(2):34-38. Dong S N,Jiang L P,Zhang J Q,et al.Research on flood vulnerability curves of rural dwellings based on“3S” technology[J].Journal of Catastrophology, 2012,27(2): 34-38. (in Chinese) [22]郭广芬,周月华,史瑞琴,等.湖北省暴雨洪涝致灾指标研究[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(4):357-361. Guo G F,Zhou Y H,Shi R Q,et al.Study on index of heavy rain flood disaster grade in Hubei Province[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2009,28(4):357-361.(in Chinese) [23]王莉萍,王秀荣,王维国,等.QX/T341-2016 降雨过程强度等级[S].北京:气象出版社,2017.(in Chinese). Wang L P,Wang X R,Wang W G,et al.QX/T341-2016 China for the intensity grade of rainfall process[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2017.(in Chinese) [24]温泉沛,霍治国,周月华,等.南方洪涝灾害综合风险评估[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(10):2900-2906. Wen Q P,Huo Z G,Zhou Y H,et al.Integrated risk assessment of flood disasters in southern China[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2015,34(10):2900-2906.(in Chinese) [25]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴[M].北京:气象出版社, 2005-2016. China Meteorological Administration.Yearbook of meteoro logical disasters in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005-2016.(in Chinese) [26]中华人民共和国农业部.中国农业统计资料[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2005-2016. Ministry of Agriculture.China agriculture statistical report [M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2005-2016.(in Chinese) [27]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2005-2017. National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.China statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2005-2017.(in Chinese) [28]于庆东,沈荣芳.自然灾害综合灾情分级模型及应用[J].灾害学,1997,12(3):12-17. Yu Q D,Shen R F.A grading model and its application of the comprehensive situation of natural disaster[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1997,12(3):12-17.(in Chinese) [29]曹诗嘉,方伟华,谭骏.基于海南省“威马逊”及“海鸥”台风次生海岸洪水灾后问卷调查的室内财产脆弱性研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(2):188-195. Cao S J,Fang W H,Tan J.Vulnerability of building contents to coastal flooding based on questionaire survey in Hainan after typhoon Rammasun and Kalmeagi[J].Journal of Catas- trophology,2016,31(2):188-195.(in Chinese) [30]颜廷武,张童朝,张俊飚.特困地区自然灾害脆弱性及其致贫效应的调查分析[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(8):526-536. Yan T W,Zhang T C,Zhang J B.Research on natural disaster vulnerability and its poverty causing effect in contiguous poor rural areas[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38 (8): 526-536.(in Chinese)