基于气候适宜度指数预报玉米产量时旬权重系数的确定方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.10.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用吉林省1980-2016年春玉米作物资料、50个气象站的逐日气象资料，构建春玉米生长季各旬的气候适宜度模型。分别采用绝对值法、归一化法和相关系数法确定各旬气候适宜度权重系数，进而计算4月上旬-预报日前一旬的气候适宜度指数，分析不同方法得到的气候适宜度指数与春玉米产量气象影响指数的相关性，并进行回归分析，建立产量动态预报模型，对吉林省春玉米单产进行预报。结果表明：三种方法研究的权重系数之间存在一定差异，但总体上随生育期的变化趋势基本一致。利用1981-2012年资料回归分析建立的产量丰歉预报模型多数通过0.05水平的有效性检验，各预报模型历史拟合平均准确率均在85.0%以上，归一化均方根误差NRMSE均小于17.0%，丰歉趋势预报准确率普遍在60.0%～80.0%，三种方法差异不明显。利用模型对2013-2016年春玉米单产进行外推预报，各预报时间准确率存在波动，但绝对值法、归一化法和相关系数法所有预报时间的平均准确率分别为93.5%、90.8%、87.2%，预报结果准确率的标准差分别为32.6、69.4、116.1。且绝对值法各预报时间平均准确率均在85.0%以上。可见绝对值法预报结果的准确率和稳定性均较高，可以满足业务服务需要。

关键词: 产量预报, 吉林, 春玉米, 作物产量气象影响指数, 绝对值法, 归一化法, 相关系数法

Abstract: The climatic suitability models of each 10-day in the growth season of spring maize were constructed by using crop data of spring maize from 1980 to 2016 and daily meteorological data of 50 meteorological stations in Jilin province. In order to calculate climatic suitability index in different times (from early April to the 10-day before forecast day), methods of absolute, normalization, and correlation were used respectively to determine the weight coefficient of climatic suitability of each 10-day. Then, the relevance between meteorological influence index for maize yield and climatic suitability index obtained by different methods has been analyzed. A yield dynamic prediction model was established by regression analysis, and was used to forecast the spring maize yield in Jilin province. The results showed that, there were some differences between the three weight coefficient determination methods, but on the whole, the variation trend with the growth period were basically the same. The yield bumper or poor harvest prediction model established by regression analysis using materials from 1981 to 2012 most passed the 0.05 level effective test and the historical fitting average accuracy was all above 85.0%, the normalized root mean square error NRMSE was all less than 17.0%, and the accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend was generally in 60.0%-80.0%.The difference between the three methods was not obvious. The results of maize yield extrapolation forecast from 2013 to 2016 showed that, the yield prediction accuracy in each forecast times had fluctuant, but the average accuracy of methods of absolute, normalization, and correlation was 93.5%, 90.8% and 87.2%, respectively，and the standard deviation of the forecast results was 32.6, 69.4 and 116.1, respectively. Moreover, the average accuracy of each prediction time for the method of absolute was above 85.0%. It showed that the accuracy and stability of the prediction result of absolute were all high, which could meet the needs of business services.

Key words: Yield prediction, Jilin, Spring maize, Meteorological influence index for crop yield, Absolute, Normalization, Correlation

邱美娟，刘布春，袁福香，刘园，张玥滢，吴昕悦，肖楠舒. 基于气候适宜度指数预报玉米产量时旬权重系数的确定方法[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(10): 664-673.

QIU Mei-juan, LIU Bu-chun, YUAN Fu-xiang, LIU Yuan, ZHANG Yue-ying, WU Xin-yue, XIAO Nan-shu. Determination Methods of Weight Coefficient in Spring Maize Yield Prediction Based on Climatic Suitability Index[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(10): 664-673.

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